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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl

Re: Tracking 5 systems...
Wed Sep 22 2004 04:35 PM

WOW Andrew anyone? well not the strength but Im still going on the andrew track, just 150 miles north. Anyways you all look at the 12z model runs yet? Theyre now in line with my thinkning over the last week. Infact the Nogaps takes it right into Melbourne,florida and into the Gulf near Tampa. GFS takes it to about 28N and 79W or 30N and 80W and brings close to hurricane force winds along to coast near Merrit Island N....only 50 miles offshore. CMC dont go out more then 72 but is online with a Melbourne target but cant tell if it will brush the coast or go inland,,,,anyways the models adjust a little more to the SW on the runs. I also just to note the CMC did a jog to the WNW or NW during the loop in the first 24 hrs so it might be just a tad to far north on the run which would bring it along with the Nogaps. Now Stewart mentioned the Nogaps and (as of now) is disregarding it and says its due to the ridge hanging on alittle longer then the rest of the models, but I dont see that as the case, its just that the ridge will be stronger to the N so it weakens 24 hrs later to that of the GFS (which is still a northern byest model). So since the ridge will be just a tad stronger, it will push Jeanne just alittle faster as you see in the hrs on 36-108. Nogap makes landfall about 12 hrs sooner. So basically what Im saying is that the Nogaps has a stronger ridge so it moves Jeanne just a tad faster, bringing her onshore. For the first 24 hrs the models are in agreement on a sw-w path with the CMC having a jog N in the 24-36hr. Then a w path.
Im still not saying its going onshore for the best of my knowledge and info but its a timing call. Will Jeanne move 10-12mph starting Thursday afternoon to the west or move 8mph (abouts) to the west. Its timing folks. Anyways hurricane watches should be posted for the northern Bahamas by tomorrow morning, maybe as early as 11pm tonight. BTW I havnt seen the UKMET run yet.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Jeanne Watch	MikeC	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:35 PM
Weird observation re Ivan	ShanaTX	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:09 PM
Re: Weird observation re Ivan	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:08 PM
Re: Weird observation re Ivan	52255225	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:32 PM
ANDREW ANYONE???	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:03 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:13 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	MO stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:18 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:24 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	Unplugged Pig	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:27 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:29 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	MO Stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:33 PM
Jeanne at 11	Ed in Va	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:42 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	ticka1	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:44 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:51 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:52 PM
94L	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:56 PM
Re: 94L	8675309	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:15 PM
Re: 94L	#Teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:19 PM
Re: 94L	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:24 PM
Re: 94L	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:28 PM
Re: 94L	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:30 PM
Re: 94L	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:26 PM
Re: 94L	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:42 PM
Re: 94L	Ivy	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:44 PM
Re: 94L	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:02 PM
Re: 94L	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:22 PM
Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:13 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Ricreig	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:27 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Steve hirschb.	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:36 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:45 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Mooshie-SC	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:48 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:51 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Mooshie-SC	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:08 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Joe	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:20 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Storm Cooper	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:15 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:34 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:33 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Ricreig	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:42 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:54 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Liz L.	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Steve hirschb.	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:01 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	storm chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:05 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:26 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:35 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	lois	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:17 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:33 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:46 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:50 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:47 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:48 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:58 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:15 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:09 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:35 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:43 PM
And the broad center of 94L is....	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:11 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:27 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:42 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	doug	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:01 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	mbfly	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:48 PM
Coastal Weather Research	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:07 PM
Trust the NHC	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	mbfly	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:40 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	Kimberley Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:43 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	AgentB	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:55 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:57 PM
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD	Staggy	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:03 PM
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD	doug	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:10 PM
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:13 PM
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:12 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:02 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:04 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:07 PM
Re: Trust the NHC	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:10 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:27 PM
you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:32 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:35 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:44 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:49 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:56 PM
94L Recon	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:03 PM
Re: 94L Recon	Kimberley Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:19 PM
Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:24 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:48 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:51 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:56 PM
Sucking hard	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:53 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:55 PM
Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion	danielw	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:53 PM
Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion	Kent	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:05 PM
Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion	Ed in Va	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM
Well Well.........	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:00 PM
Re: Well Well.........	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:10 PM
Re: Well Well.........	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:22 PM
track	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:35 PM
Re: track	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM
Re: track	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:54 PM
Re: track	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:52 PM
Re: recon	danielw	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:56 PM
Re: sat	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM
Re: recon	lilyv	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:59 PM
July 31, 2004	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	gailmm	Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 AM
Re: July 31, 2004	COgal	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:33 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:36 PM
Neil Diamond???	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:40 PM
He's BACK!	wxman007	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:42 PM
Re: He's BACK!	troy	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:25 PM
Re: He's BACK!	cmdebbie	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:36 PM
Re: He's BACK!	MO Stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:43 PM
Re recon	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:37 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	Mooshie-SC	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:07 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	steph	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM
Re: July 31, 2004	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM
Look What I Found!!!!	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:01 PM
Back up after 7 Days down!	ErinAndOpal95	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:28 PM
2 Thoughts/Points	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:31 PM
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points	Kimberley Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:50 PM
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points	mbfly	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:04 PM
NEW THREAD	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 11:05 PM
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:47 PM
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points	Keith234	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:49 PM
Ivan and 94L	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:51 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:00 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:08 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:10 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:12 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 PM
Re: Central Florida Hit..Holy Molly!	DMFischer	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:36 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	danielw	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:28 PM
Re: Ivan and 94L	Storm Hunter	Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 PM
94L and the winds	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:27 PM
Shawn...	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:32 PM
Re: Shawn...	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM
First outerbands approach MS coast and NO	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM
Re: Shawn...	Brad	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:37 PM
JB	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:41 PM
From The TWO....	teal61	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:26 PM
Re: From The TWO....	Kimberley Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:44 PM
94L and the Front	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:49 PM
Re: 94L and the Front	Kimberley Clark	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:57 PM
Re: From The TWO....	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:29 PM
Re: From The TWO....	Keith234	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM
Re: Well Well.........	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:18 PM
Re: Well Well.........	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:20 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	SkeetoBite	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:46 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:54 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:51 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:55 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:52 PM
Re: Jeanne animated path	lilyv	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:50 PM
Recon	Brad	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:28 PM
Re: Well Well.........	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:27 PM
Re: Well Well.........	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:30 PM
Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:52 PM
Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00	Redbird	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:16 PM
Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:01 PM
Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00	Joe	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:41 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	MO Stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:31 PM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:38 PM
Re: recon	MO Stormspotter	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:41 PM
Re: recon	danielw	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM
Re: recon	rd522525	Wed Sep 22 2004 09:11 PM
Re: recon	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:56 PM
Re: recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	AdmittedHacker	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:31 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	Brad	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:30 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	doug	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:27 PM
Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?	AgentB	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:38 PM
Re: 94L Recon	mikeG	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:11 PM
Re: 94L Recon	Allison	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:17 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:47 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:39 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:39 PM
Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far	Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:43 PM
Re: And the broad center of 94L is....	leetdan	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:25 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:49 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	leetdan	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:08 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	doug	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:48 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Fletch	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:04 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Wxwatcher2	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:00 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:06 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	doug	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:56 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	CarolinaGurl	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:36 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:46 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	CarolinaGurl	Wed Sep 22 2004 08:02 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Grasshopper	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:09 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 07:11 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Bloodstar	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:46 PM
Newbie	LanceW	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:44 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	8675309	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:21 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	8675309	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:27 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:30 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:14 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:07 PM
94L	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM
Re: 94L	8675309	Wed Sep 22 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:45 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Ricreig	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:14 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	scottsvb	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:35 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	EriktheFled	Wed Sep 22 2004 04:34 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:41 PM
Re: Tracking 5 systems...	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:46 PM
Re: 94L	ticka1	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:03 PM
ticka1	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:09 PM
TX bound Shawn??	Frank P	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:01 PM
Re: 94L	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:00 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	ticka1	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:54 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	LI Phil	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:55 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	Redbird1	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:19 PM
94L	SoonerShawn	Wed Sep 22 2004 03:22 PM
Re: T-numbers on 94L	Rabbit	Wed Sep 22 2004 02:48 PM
Re: Jeanne Watch	LoisCane	Wed Sep 22 2004 01:43 PM

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