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Lance...a lot of times (like this whole freaking season) there are very weak steering currents, so the hurricanes will wobble back and forth until something more steady picks it up and begins to move it. That's why it's so hard to pinpoint an area of landfall for Jeanne right now. Could be South Florida, Central Florida, North Florida or even the Carolinas at this point. The models have not done a great job with the strength of the high over the Atlantic that's been pushing all the storms westward, towards Florida, which results in a lot of people being on pins and needles since Charley. I sure hope they're right, that it will only hug the coast of Florida and move up the coastline, but I have a binder (I know I'm a geek! ) that I can reference that had Frances doing almost the same thing until about 2 days (or less) before landfall in Central Florida. Frances was also supposed to hug the coast and go up to the Carolinas, but we all know that did not happen.
Satellite frames are our enemy. They can make you crazy looking at them every hour (or half hour) to try and see where it's going. I can honesly tell you that because I did it with Charley, Frances and Ivan. A better way to do it is to step away for a few hours, than come back and look. Also...the NHC has been doing an excellent job this year with their accuracy for landfalling storms, and this was what Forecaster Avila said in his 11:00pm advisory last night:

Quote:

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JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE GFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT
BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP ONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER AVILA

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So, yes, the storm has been forecasted to move in a more westward direction and could in fact be doing just that, which may be why she is MOVING ERRATICALLY as LoisCane has emphasized.

Now, if you read the 5AM advisory: Jeanne 5AM Advisory , there is more of a question of intensity rather than where/when/if it will make landfall in Florida.

I hope this helps.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

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