98L thoughts:
1. Convection is perdominant on one side of the low pressure area, this has been very common this year. We haven't seen too many low pressure areas with robust thunderstorm activity in all quadrants.
2. A *possible* subtropical start. Many systems have become tropical this year after going through subtropical stages. *If* this system remains hybrid/subtropical for more than 24-36 hours, a repeat of an Earl type storm will be possible. Why? On to number 3...
3. Subtropical storms tend to intensify more via high shearing environments. This is one of the reasons why these systems tend to have their strongest convection and winds on one side of the low. Earl was under high shear from Hurricane Isis in the Eastern Pacific-Earl strengthened to an 85-knot hurricane nontheless. Earl had more of an elongated structure even at peak itensity.
4. Broad wind structure typical of hybrid/subtropical systems. Earl had most of the convection on it's east side. It hit the Florida Panhandle but I remembr we felt heavy rains, tornadoes, and high winds here in Orlando despite the fact the Earl's center made landfall well north and west of here. Basically, subtropical and hybrid storms can be more potent than maximum sustained winds indicate.
We'll know a lot more by late tonight after recon flies in. All interests from Pensicola to Naples need to keep a close on the situation.
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