Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Re: Jeanne Track
Fri Sep 24 2004 07:38 AM
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Quote:
I have read over and over again how the models have been consistently right biased.......
Is there truth to that and if so does anyone think it will affect THIS track?
Yes, there is truth to that. Most of the previous storms this hear have been 'adjusted' repeatedly to the West because the models and forecasts based in part upon those models are biased 'right' or East. This is why there is a lot of movement of the track to the left. When the actual track is known, the models are 'reprogrammed' with better data regarding current conditions and they spit out new lines, often left of their previous lines. The NHC, uses those lines as a guide to their own lines and draw their lines further left.
As the lines get shorter (closer to the real position), the lines usually don't have to be moved much and have less bias. I guess what I'm saying here is the lines just depict *guesses* and the guesses are often skewed to the right because the computer guesses are based upon a combination of incomplete or even incorrect data coupled with our lack of understanding of how nature really works and our programmers, who write the model software), inability to translate what we *do* know into a form that computers can 'understand'.
So, yes, they are biased and yes, it will affect this and future forecast track estimates. The track itself, the real one doesn't know or care about our forecasts. Nature laughs, jogs, meanders "bombs" and races acording to her own rules.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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