Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

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Pre-season forecasts

On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing warmer oceans, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3. Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 45% probability of above-normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.

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Uhh..So how "wrong" have they been so far? I find it funny they downgraded the forcast before all the "fun" began.

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