I'm a newbie, but I've viewed the site through the last 3 canes..regarding the track, the most consistent model that I've seen the last 2-3 days is NOGAPS. It takes the track thru WPB up to Tampa and offshore in GOM to panhandle. The newest 12Z runs of the Canadian & UKMET (sorry folks I think the UKMET track is wrong on the SFWMD site), take a "Frances" path across the state. I. like others, have noted a right-of-track bias with the GFS & GFDL this season. The high is expansive centered near Norfolk, & reminds me of the Andrew pattern in '92. The trough over the upper Midwest is lifting into Canada so I just can't see this 90 deg turn north. But, heck, whatta I know.
Intensity - It looks as if the storm is getting its act together, right in time to hook up with 84F ocean water. If it wasn't for the dry air surrounding the storm, I'd say it could bomb to a CAT 4 b4 landfall. But with the dry air, maybe strong CAT 3. I think this storm will be stronger than Frances. 1) Frances was sheared significantly over the bahamas & never really got its act together prior to landfall (remember 60 nm eye), 2) no sign shear is forecast the next 36-48 hours for Jeanne,you've got an anticyclone over top doing some nice evacuation, & the gulf stream. Now one other factor, its the 3rd week of September and not late August, so maybe ocean temps have cooled slightly but there should be enuff juice for rapid intensification before landfall. It is a smaller size storm than Frances, but she'll be stronger. Hmmm, I'm ready for CROW pie.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 107998
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center