Dunno how much has been mentioned about various model runs... but
the 25 0000Z cmc run has the storm following a near frances track....
the 25 0000Z jma has it over Orlando
the 25 0000Z also has it doing an orlando run... and incidentally moves lisa to 19N 60W at 144 Hours (which may not matter)
the 25 0000Z gfdl shows 2 different solutions (really) the jeanne track keeps it very east... barely hitting the coast. however when the model run focus's instead on Lisa, Jeanne takes a very westerly track and makes it to the west coast before recurving.
the 25 0000 AVN also takes the storm to the west coast before recurving it sharply... and incidently has a low pressure develop in the bahamas (but isn't AVN notorious for making up spurrious low pressure systems?)
24 1200Z nogaps does a frances track as well.
Actually the 25 0000Z now pulls the storm all the way to the west coast as well before curving it.
what does it all mean? well, for one I'm not sure
where the plots are coming from on the various sites
but my eyeballs are telling me something different.
Taking a stab at forecasting and predicting (which do not take this forecast seriously beyond a rank amature who knows more about Diablo II than weather forecasting):
As of 5am Jeanne will be moving along at 14mph with movement just north of due west at 285 degrees windspeed will be bumped to 115mph. I also think they're going to change the tropical storm watch on the west coast to a hurricane watch at 5am (particularly with the model runs giving too high a risk to the west coast)
by 11am the hurricane will be straighten back out to a due west movement and increase speed to 16mph. Wind speeds will be bumped again this time to 120mph
I'm going to call for a landfall at Juno beach 26.8N 80.0W around 11pm with sustained winds of 115MPH. unfortunately I'm also thinking it is going to pass over Lake okechobee. and then shift to a true wnw motion 300 degrees. Tampa should get a sideswipe from the storm and and Bradenton is where the storm will exit out into the gulf for a brief period of time...
It will then start a hard curve and come *back* in around Perry Florida In Taylor County as a minimal Hurricane. It will weaken further and exit out somewhere near Savannah. clip the outer banks as a tropical storm, and then go away.
*gets his crow out*
My reasoning:
The models are onto something with the recurvature...but the models have, as pointed out, been very right biased with any motion of the storm. Looking at the latest models, there is no reason to doubt their accuracy, except I still think that all of the right bias hasn't left the models quite yet. In addition, with the heaviest convection staying consistantly on the south side of the storm the last 6 hours, I think that should continue to pull the storm in a more southerly motion than it'd otherwise typically go.
My intensity forecast, I think may be a tad light, but the dry air should, hopefully, keep the storm from doing a charley boom.
ok, it's late... I'm going to go ahead an rest.
be safe and good luck all
Mark
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