not much to say about jeanne, easy forecast. i don't expect it to get to 4 unless something dramatic happens.. probably a solid 3-range hurricane (105/110kt). the track across florida should be similar to frances, but perhaps a tad to the right. since it's moving faster the wind damage should extend further inland.. rainfall ought to be 4-8 in most location, 10-12 where the bands train. another rainfall event across south georgia and the coastal plain of the carolinas is forthcoming as well.. gale winds may extend up to the georgia coast, but be mostly confined to peninsular florida. the tornado threat should be typical.. maybe more significant as the storm gets further north near the westerlies.
elsewhere, the surface low from ivan has degenerated, with a weak mlc moving sw near the middle texas coast. most of the weather in the gulf is turning south or southeast ahead of jeanne.. not very suggestive of development right now, anything there is 2-3 days out from interesting activity, at least.
lisa forecast track which has been essentially northward recurvature for days now bending left.. expect it to be near 25/55 in six days or so, heading west. lisa should eventually reach hurricane strength... it's ultimate track is hard to determine.
wave behind lisa doing nothing now under heavy shear, new one poised to leave africa looking feisty now but a sharp upper trough lies ahead.. this section of the basin is essentially closed, anything in the area will have to get further west to develop.
waiting for a response to the westpac typhoon... we're around an mjo-inspired lull right now (probably slow in jeanne's wake for a week or two).. there may be a shot at close in development given the currently confused pattern.
one last note is the occluded deep layer low west of the azores.. it has an impressive convective pattern, and were it a few degrees further south would be a prime candidate for a hybrid to tropical system.. as such with its near 40n latitude i doubt it can transition.
big deal today and tomorrow with jeanne in florida. not encouraging to think that the western caribbean action of the october week 2 secondary peak has yet to arrive. hopefully four will be enough for florida this year.
HF 1551z25september
just a note.. somebody mentioned a bad moon.. saw one setting around 3:30 a.m. last night.. waxing gibbous nearly twice the normal size near the horizon, and a dingy reddish color. didn't look friendly. -HF
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