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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Easy Does It
      Sun Sep 15 2002 05:10 AM

i get the feeling td 10's center is dead. think about it: weak 25kt center racing forward at 20kt hits a narrow strip of land.. splat. as for it skimming the venezuela coast.. forget that. believe it or not water temps at the immediate coast are below support threshold, due to localized upwelling. so the upper environment is nice.. but the low level system is wrecked.
some of you have already proposed that the center may reform north, out over the caribbean closer to the convection. best option for keeping the system active... dont see this thing doing much right along the venezuela coast.
i do think this thing will reorganize by the time it is in the western caribbean. as model runs have consistently adjusted west i'm tempted to say it will crash into central america, but upstream the globals have a very sharp amplification in the central u.s... that draws whatever is there northward, unless it is just pathetically disorganized. so.. somewhat possible that late next week a tropical system will be near cuba, and near florida for the weekend.
before anything happens though this system has to produce a low level center in a place where it can grow, not drag it into venezuela. when we get something viable to track, then there can be some real forecasting, as opposed to wishcasting and guesscasting.
hanna.. moving more eastward than northward. not expecting it to survive its crossing of the southeast, but going to put down plenty more rain on the coastal plain and piedmont.. where it is needed.
central atlantic wave.. turning up into a sharp upper trough. upstream feature from the ridging over the eastern caribbean. might still sputter and try to develop, but off the westward track for now.
nothing else looking like it wants to develop.
anon, ive been watching you. dont see that you have anything but snide critical remarks, so perhaps you should keep your wit to yourself.. no one else is impressed by it. if you care to really join the board and communicate useful ideas, show that you have some forecasting balls.. fine.. but otherwise take a hike. useful criticism is structured, assertive, and credible... not cowardly and cheap.
HF 0505z15september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela CFHCAdministrator Sun Sep 15 2002 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymousnickd   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Mike   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:23 PM
. * * Early morning thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Early morning thoughts. doug   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:35 PM
. * * visibles HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:19 PM
. * * Re: HankFrank Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:34 PM
. * * Kevin nothing at 11 AM Cycloneye   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:17 PM
. * * Advisory thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:26 PM
. * * gfdl HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:22 PM
. * * STARTING TO CRANK UP WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:41 AM
. * * Robert ShawnS   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Robert Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Robert AnonymousW   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Robert Jeanine   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:12 AM
. * * convection HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:24 AM
. * * repost Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:39 PM
. * * HF try this link.. Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:46 PM
. * * Also.. Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:17 PM
. * * TD#10 ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela MarkTropics   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:13 PM
. * * Hold on...TD10 isn't dead. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:13 PM
. * * Probably not an East Coast storm... Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Probably not an East Coast storm... Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Probably not an East Coast storm... Mary   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:12 PM
. * * ten HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:29 PM
. * * TAMPA DISCUSSION WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Saints ....... Frank P   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:07 PM
. * * ten again HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Rad   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:17 PM
. * * reformation Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Excellent Analysis! Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Excellent Analysis! Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Excellent Analysis! 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:48 PM
. * * ?? HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:53 PM
. * * Re: ?? Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:57 PM
. * * Re: ?? Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: ?? ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Mike   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:19 PM
. * * recon.. HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:24 PM
. * * Re: recon.. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:34 PM
. * * No closed circulation yet. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:50 PM
. * * Re: No closed circulation yet. Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:31 PM
. * * LLCC Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:48 PM
. * * re im a fool Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:52 PM
. * * Re: re im a fool Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:05 PM
. * * side note HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:17 PM
. * * Re: side note Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:45 PM
. * * Possible LLC greg-kfdmtv   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:46 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:34 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:39 PM
. * * Re: The Keys tom5r   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:01 PM
. * * Re:5pm weather Jeanine   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:15 PM
. * * Re:5pm weather Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:23 PM
. * * LOCAL REPORT WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:34 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:41 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT tom5r   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:35 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:47 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:51 PM
. * * Local reports extremely vague tonight. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:38 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:42 PM
. * * irritation HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:04 PM
. * * Re: irritation Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:24 PM
. * * Bastardi Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:05 PM
. * * Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always) Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always) Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:25 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Steve H. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... anonnnnn   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Tony   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Tony   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Domino   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:05 AM
. * * Return of TD10...soon? Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:39 AM
. * * N of PR Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:34 AM
. * * RE Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:00 AM
. * * want visibles... HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:16 AM
. * * Re: frank Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:28 AM
. * * Re: frank Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:55 AM
. * * It's definitely not dead yet Alex k   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Marktropic   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Eduardo   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Jeanine   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:27 AM
. * * Re: tracking software Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:53 AM
. * * Shwan s Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:40 AM
. * * thanks HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela ShawnS   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:08 PM
. * * ten plays dead HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: ten plays dead Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:35 PM
. * * TD#10...no more. it's a wave Anonymousnickd   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:47 PM
. * * Re: TD#10...no more. it's a wave Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:23 PM
. * * Model Map Tony   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:24 AM
. * * Reformation Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Reformation Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:01 AM
. * * Easy Does It Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Easy Does It HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:10 AM
. * * Re: Easy Does It mp3reed   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:40 PM
. * * LLC?? Anonymousnickd   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:47 PM
. * * The center has now emerged over water. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:01 PM
. * * Link not working...here's how you get there. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:05 PM
. * * Re: LLC?? Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:56 PM
. * * With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first... Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:18 AM
. * * Re: With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first... 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:39 AM
. * * TD #10 WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:01 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 01:06 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 caneman   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:21 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:23 PM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 01:58 PM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:33 PM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Frank P   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:21 PM

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