The Caribbean low is still looking pathetic on satellite imagery and I don't think it is going to survive. Its slight westward movement has moved it even closer to hostile conditions and less of a chance of ever having more favorable upper level conditions for development. Abundant dry air is now consuming it.
Southwest wind shear will continue for at least another 72 hours as the trough remains fairly potent and an active subtropical jet continues across the Gulf of Mexico. If any development occurs in the Caribbean, I'm inclined to think it will be another separately formed low along the tail end of the surface front over Cuba...a hybrid system. This is what the models are forecasting. This system will accelerate in the southwest flow and be kicked out by a shortwave exiting the southeast U.S. coast early next week. In this case, Florida would experience an increase in wind, but not rain since the state would be on the dry side with subsiding air.
The hybrid scenario appears the most likely, with Florida getting only an increase in wind. Conditions are simply too hostile for the current low to develop.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 15745
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center