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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1299

Re: TD #10/Robert
Sun Sep 15 2002 10:21 AM

GFDL has been relatively successful on two storms this season (there may be others but these two come to mind first) It was forecasting Edouard to back track SW, cross FL and then impact the northern GC several days before this actually came to fruition... it was WAY off on intensity, but it's forecast path was right on...

Regarding Hanna, GFDL was the one model that insisted on a more westernly component, taking the storm near the mouth of the MS river and east of NO... although not perfect, it's performance was better than most others 48 hours out..

I am not a believer in models per se, but when they start showing some accuracy, like the GFDL has recently, it certainly gives them a little more respectability than what I have given them in the past...

What would be really great if the models were rated on their performance... maybe someone is doing this, I really have not seen the data... however, it would be great to be able to review the data to see which models have performed the best over a given forcast range, and period of time... like how the stocks perform... of course this wouldn't tell you if the model would be accurate on its next storm, but at least you'd have a track record for it performance...

my opinion/guess on TD10 is that it will probably survive the brush with SA, the center will not relocate, and the system will continue to head for the central caribbean... whether this is a CA storm, a GOM storm or a FL storm remains to be seen.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	CFHC	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:21 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Mike	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:23 AM
Early morning thoughts.	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:50 AM
Re: Early morning thoughts.	doug	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:35 AM
visibles	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:19 AM
Re: HankFrank	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:34 AM
Kevin nothing at 11 AM	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:17 AM
Advisory thoughts.	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:26 AM
gfdl	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:22 AM
STARTING TO CRANK UP	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:17 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:41 PM
Robert	ShawnS	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:46 PM
Re: Robert	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:55 PM
Re: Robert	AnonymousW	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:59 PM
Re: Robert	Jeanine	Sun Sep 15 2002 09:12 PM
convection	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 09:24 PM
repost	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Joe	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:39 PM
HF try this link..	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:46 PM
Also..	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:17 PM
TD#10	ShawnS	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:22 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	MarkTropics	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:06 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 04:13 PM
Hold on...TD10 isn't dead.	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:47 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:13 AM
Probably not an East Coast storm...	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:49 AM
Re: Probably not an East Coast storm...	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 12:17 PM
Re: Probably not an East Coast storm...	Mary	Sun Sep 15 2002 12:12 PM
ten	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 12:29 PM
TAMPA DISCUSSION	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Sep 15 2002 02:31 PM
Saints .......	Frank P	Sun Sep 15 2002 03:07 PM
ten again	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 03:23 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Rad	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:47 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM
reformation	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:23 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:10 PM
Excellent Analysis!	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:31 PM
Re: Excellent Analysis!	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:41 PM
Re: Excellent Analysis!	57497479	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:48 PM
??	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:53 PM
Re: ??	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:57 PM
Re: ??	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
Re: ??	ShawnS	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:14 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Joe	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:10 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:22 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Joe	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:22 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Mike	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:30 PM
Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:45 AM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:47 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:49 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:19 PM
recon..	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:24 PM
Re: recon..	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:34 PM
No closed circulation yet.	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:50 PM
Re: No closed circulation yet.	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 03:31 PM
LLCC	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:48 PM
re im a fool	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:52 PM
Re: re im a fool	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:56 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:59 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:07 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:05 PM
side note	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:17 PM
Re: side note	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 PM
Possible LLC	greg-kfdmtv	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:55 PM
Re: side note	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:46 PM
Re: side note	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM
Re: side note	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 04:39 PM
Re: The Keys	tom5r	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:01 PM
Re:5pm weather	Jeanine	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:15 PM
Re:5pm weather	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:23 PM
LOCAL REPORT	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 05:41 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	tom5r	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:35 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:47 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:51 PM
Local reports extremely vague tonight.	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:06 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:38 PM
Re: LOCAL REPORT	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:42 PM
irritation	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:04 PM
Re: irritation	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:24 PM
Bastardi	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 06:37 PM
Re: side note	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 04:05 PM
Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always)	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 04:19 PM
Re: Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always)	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 04:25 PM
Re: side note	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 03:30 PM
Re: Steve H.	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 03:44 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:50 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:54 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:41 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:20 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:10 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:43 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:51 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:55 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:00 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:06 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:12 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	anonnnnn	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:23 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 01:31 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:39 PM
Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all...	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:50 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Tony	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:50 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Tony	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:17 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:33 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 02:54 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Domino	Mon Sep 16 2002 03:05 AM
Return of TD10...soon?	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:39 PM
N of PR	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:34 PM
RE	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:00 AM
want visibles...	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:16 AM
Re: frank	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:28 AM
Re: frank	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 12:29 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:47 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:55 PM
It's definitely not dead yet	Alex k	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:37 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Marktropic	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:43 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Eduardo	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:11 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Jeanine	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:27 PM
Re: tracking software	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:34 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:26 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:53 PM
Shwan s	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:40 PM
thanks	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	ShawnS	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:20 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Sun Sep 15 2002 07:55 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:08 PM
ten plays dead	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:26 PM
Re: ten plays dead	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	57497479	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Joe	Sun Sep 15 2002 05:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Sun Sep 15 2002 04:35 PM
TD#10...no more. it's a wave	Anonymousnickd	Sun Sep 15 2002 04:47 PM
Re: TD#10...no more. it's a wave	Jeanine	Sun Sep 15 2002 04:56 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	troy2	Sun Sep 15 2002 09:48 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM
Model Map	Tony	Sun Sep 15 2002 02:51 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	ShawnS	Sat Sep 14 2002 10:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela	57497479	Sat Sep 14 2002 11:24 PM
Reformation	Robert	Sat Sep 14 2002 11:28 PM
Re: Reformation	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 12:01 AM
Easy Does It	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 15 2002 12:20 AM
Re: Easy Does It	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 15 2002 01:10 AM
Re: Easy Does It	mp3reed	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:40 AM
LLC??	Anonymousnickd	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:47 AM
The center has now emerged over water.	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:01 AM
Link not working...here's how you get there.	Kevin	Sun Sep 15 2002 11:05 AM
Re: LLC??	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:56 AM
With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first...	Anonymous	Sun Sep 15 2002 02:18 AM
Re: With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first...	57497479	Sun Sep 15 2002 06:39 AM
TD #10	WXMAN RICHIE	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:01 AM
Re: TD #10	57497479	Sun Sep 15 2002 09:06 AM
Re: TD #10	caneman	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:21 AM
Re: TD #10	Robert	Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM
Re: TD #10/Robert	Jeanine	Sun Sep 15 2002 09:58 AM
Re: TD #10/Robert	Joe	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:33 AM
Re: TD #10/Robert	Frank P	Sun Sep 15 2002 10:21 AM

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