SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS A
SUCCESS FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INSISTING ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE WEST AND THERE MAY BE SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL AMPLIFIES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECAUSE THE
DEPRESION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF MEXICO. AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE MAY FORCE THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 35378
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center