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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Beryl) , Major: 318 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 318 (Idalia) Major: 318 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
yellow alert/green threat
      Thu Sep 30 2004 06:12 PM

if hurricane monitoring were like the national terror alert status, that's where we'd be. nothing active aside from a distant fish spinner, and that may or may not change over the weekend.
lisa is heading out and away. it's finally beaten shear only to enter a dry enough environment and cooling ssts that have let it's convection deteriorate. still showing flashes of will to develop, and it may become a low-rung hurricane over the next day before turning northeast and emptying the basin.
before lisa gets out of the pool the chances of either of the other concern areas developing aren't very significant.. but worth mentioning.
first is a weak wave near 52w which isn't acting so weak anymore.. in fact it has been throwing more convection over the last couple of days. upper winds are mediocre as it is beneath the base of a broad upper trough, and it is at low latitude and has little amplitude... convergence seems to be resultant of faster easterlies rather than backing in the deep tropics.. nonetheless it has the opportunity to slowly organize as it gets closer to the caribbean and into a more favorable environment. it shouldn't develop tomorrow, but may become a tracked invest or something more over the weekend.
to the west a tropical wave and strong convection near the colombian coast are interacting with a weakening upper low in the southwestern caribbean.. the amplitude of the system has increased as the divergence east of the upper low is enhancing convection. as the upper low reorients the support for strong convection should become greatest midway between jamaica and panama tomorrow.. and over the weekend the low pressure shown in the region may begin to organize. gfs continues to develop a weak, broad low in the area and migrate it up towards the yucatan next week. there should be enough ridging to keep it moving wnw or nw over the next five days, should anything start to consolidate. i do expect an invest in the area at the least, by monday.
basin conditions are as such: persisting SOI positive keeping an NAO mostly positive, progressive/trough splitting pattern active, with low to medium amplitude weather systems in the mid latitudes. the potential for hybrid activity of the east coast continues, and warm caribbean and western gulf waters leave the potential for retrograding upper features to trigger disturbances on their trailing flank, when low level energy is available. the cape verde season is closing out, though waves that make it west of the sharp upper trough off NW africa with any amplitude may still try to develop further west.
what we're waiting for right now is a negative SOI shot to cause some backing in the deep tropics, and cause an october storm in the western caribbean.
HF 2207z30september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Jeanne and Lisa now in the North Atlantic danielwAdministrator Thu Sep 30 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Here we go again? LadyStorm   Sat Oct 02 2004 07:26 AM
. * * Spinning System S of Hati. Grasshopper2   Thu Sep 30 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. leetdan   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Discussion LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Discussion leetdan   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Holy **** WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Holy **** matlon   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Holy **** grasshopper2   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Matthew LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Matthew grasshopper2   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:34 PM
. * * yellow alert/green threat HanKFranK   Thu Sep 30 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Lat/Lon LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Lat/Lon grasshopper2   Fri Oct 01 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Lat/Lon BeachBum   Fri Oct 01 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 02 2004 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday James88   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday Matt033   Sat Oct 02 2004 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Lat/Lon andy1tom   Fri Oct 01 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Lat/Lon doug   Fri Oct 01 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: today's tropical discussion doug   Fri Oct 01 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Noon Friday WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Oct 01 2004 01:12 PM
. * * ??? Brad   Fri Oct 01 2004 04:09 PM
. * * Re: ??? Clark   Fri Oct 01 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: ??? Keith234   Fri Oct 01 2004 05:42 PM
. * * seconded notion HanKFranK   Fri Oct 01 2004 05:40 PM
. * * Re: ??? ChiBride   Fri Oct 01 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: ??? Brad   Fri Oct 01 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Hurricane Lisa LI Phil   Fri Oct 01 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa Rabbit   Fri Oct 01 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa LI Phil   Fri Oct 01 2004 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa James88   Fri Oct 01 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Noon Friday Grasshopper2   Fri Oct 01 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Noon Friday Ed in Va   Fri Oct 01 2004 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Lat/Lon BeachBum   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Matthew SteveieB   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Matthew James88   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. grasshopper2   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. Keith234   Thu Sep 30 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. grasshopper2   Thu Sep 30 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Spinning System S of Hati. Keith234   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:39 PM
. * * 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 30 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update recmod   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:38 PM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:49 PM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update recmod   Fri Oct 01 2004 12:04 AM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 01 2004 12:30 AM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update Keith234   Fri Oct 01 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update cjzydeco   Fri Oct 01 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa? Staggy   Fri Oct 01 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa? LI Phil   Fri Oct 01 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lisa? Grasshopper2   Fri Oct 01 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 6AM Tropical Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 01 2004 07:08 AM
. * * Re: 6AM Tropical Update Terri   Fri Oct 01 2004 09:40 AM
. * * NY Times and Global Warming tpratch   Fri Oct 01 2004 10:43 AM
. * * JB LI Phil   Fri Oct 01 2004 10:27 AM
. * * Re: JB Terri   Sat Oct 02 2004 09:30 AM
. * * Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 30 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gray's Update Staggy   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gray's Update gailwarning   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Dr. Gray's Update sthorne   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:30 PM
. * * Bonus Point Question LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Hombrew Development Keith234   Thu Sep 30 2004 03:44 PM
. * * 10N 53W Bloodstar   Thu Sep 30 2004 02:07 PM
. * * ? for Mets & long time trackers SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 30 2004 06:31 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers ShanaTX   Thu Sep 30 2004 02:38 PM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:29 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers Ronn   Thu Sep 30 2004 08:53 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers tpratch   Thu Sep 30 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers VandyBrad   Thu Sep 30 2004 10:53 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers Ronn   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers Keith234   Thu Sep 30 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers tpratch   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:56 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:05 AM
. * * interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS MrSpock   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:17 AM
. * * Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS BillD   Thu Sep 30 2004 09:02 AM
. * * Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS MrSpock   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS Terri   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS Ed in Va   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS MrSpock   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:54 AM
. * * Thursday Morning LI Phil   Thu Sep 30 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Thursday Morning tpratch   Thu Sep 30 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers VandyBrad   Thu Sep 30 2004 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Jeanne and Lisa now in the North Atlantic sthorne   Wed Sep 29 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Discussion danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 29 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Good news, from a board member MrSpock   Wed Sep 29 2004 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Good news, from a board member danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 30 2004 05:36 AM

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