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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ten
      Sun Sep 15 2002 12:29 PM

recon will be telling us in the next couple of hours if the center is in or to the south of that burst off the venezuela coast.. i'm tempted to believe it is. a'ite.. if the center isnt under the convection we are looking at a weak, westward moving, probably not closed system. if it is under.. the intensification process is now under way. shouldnt go quickly until the storm moves away from the south american coast.. but after it reaches the 72nd meridian or so.. should become a steady intensifier. mary as for shear.. possible, but the upper trough in the w carib is retrograding and not really generating a whole lot.
models: a couple of the globals still bullish on turning it up near eastern cuba, but the consensus has shifted to west of jamaica now. on the other hand gfdl is all the way over across the yucatan now. years past we've watched one major caribbean hurricane after another just keep going west and never turn up and hit us.. so that possibility does resonate.. but i'm going against it this time. think that by friday the storm will be clearing western cuba or the yucatan channel and entering the gulf.. turning northward and slowing down.
intensity.. the big scary question. globals not deepening the storm much, statistical models are. gfdl does its usual major hurricane. think the nhc intensity is slightly conservative after 36hrs. i'm going to call for major hurricane.. something i dont usually do unless a system is well on its way there. partially gut feeling, partially because so many other people have.. that if i'm wrong i'm just another bandwagon wreck victim. but i do see a very mean hurricane out of this. primary concerns southern and western florida (i know, friday to sunday is a long way off).
elsewhere in the tropics.. nothing is closer than probably 48hrs from development. new african wave is in a good environment, but not quite ready. wave at 35w is shorn. some disturbed weather southeast and east of bermuda that isnt very organized. hanna tracking NE towards the atlanta area.. all the weather is south and east of there. looking less tropical today. western gulf still has me suspicious, but nothing there right now.
earlier post about hurricane parties: need a hurricane for that. hanna was just a breeze and many hours of light to moderate rain. will try again with isidore next weekend.
HF 1624z15september
HF 1623z

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela CFHCAdministrator Sun Sep 15 2002 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymousnickd   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Mike   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:23 AM
. * * Early morning thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Early morning thoughts. doug   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:35 AM
. * * visibles HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:19 AM
. * * Re: HankFrank Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:34 AM
. * * Kevin nothing at 11 AM Cycloneye   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:17 AM
. * * Advisory thoughts. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:26 AM
. * * gfdl HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:22 AM
. * * STARTING TO CRANK UP WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:41 PM
. * * Robert ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Robert Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Robert AnonymousW   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Robert Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:12 PM
. * * convection HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:24 PM
. * * repost Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:39 PM
. * * HF try this link.. Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:46 PM
. * * Also.. Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:17 PM
. * * TD#10 ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela MarkTropics   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:13 PM
. * * Hold on...TD10 isn't dead. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:13 AM
. * * Probably not an East Coast storm... Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Probably not an East Coast storm... Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Probably not an East Coast storm... Mary   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:12 PM
. * * ten HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:29 PM
. * * TAMPA DISCUSSION WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:31 PM
. * * Saints ....... Frank P   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:07 PM
. * * ten again HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Rad   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM
. * * reformation Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:10 PM
. * * Excellent Analysis! Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Excellent Analysis! Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Excellent Analysis! 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:48 PM
. * * ?? HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:53 PM
. * * Re: ?? Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:57 PM
. * * Re: ?? Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
. * * Re: ?? ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Mike   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:30 PM
. * * Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:19 PM
. * * recon.. HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:24 PM
. * * Re: recon.. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:34 PM
. * * No closed circulation yet. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:50 PM
. * * Re: No closed circulation yet. Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:31 PM
. * * LLCC Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:48 PM
. * * re im a fool Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:52 PM
. * * Re: re im a fool Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:05 PM
. * * side note HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:17 PM
. * * Re: side note Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Possible LLC greg-kfdmtv   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:55 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:46 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:39 PM
. * * Re: The Keys tom5r   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:01 PM
. * * Re:5pm weather Jeanine   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:15 PM
. * * Re:5pm weather Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:23 PM
. * * LOCAL REPORT WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 05:41 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT tom5r   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:35 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:47 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Local reports extremely vague tonight. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:06 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:38 PM
. * * Re: LOCAL REPORT Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:42 PM
. * * irritation HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:04 PM
. * * Re: irritation Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:24 PM
. * * Bastardi Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 06:37 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:05 PM
. * * Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always) Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always) Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 04:25 PM
. * * Re: side note Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Steve H. Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... anonnnnn   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Your Capt Crunch wasn't spiked at all... troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Tony   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Tony   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Domino   Mon Sep 16 2002 03:05 AM
. * * Return of TD10...soon? Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:39 PM
. * * N of PR Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:34 PM
. * * RE Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:00 AM
. * * want visibles... HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:16 AM
. * * Re: frank Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:28 AM
. * * Re: frank Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:55 PM
. * * It's definitely not dead yet Alex k   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Marktropic   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Eduardo   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:27 PM
. * * Re: tracking software Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:53 PM
. * * Shwan s Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:40 PM
. * * thanks HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela ShawnS   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:08 PM
. * * ten plays dead HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:26 PM
. * * Re: ten plays dead Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:35 PM
. * * TD#10...no more. it's a wave Anonymousnickd   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: TD#10...no more. it's a wave Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela troy2   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM
. * * Model Map Tony   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela ShawnS   Sat Sep 14 2002 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela 57497479   Sat Sep 14 2002 11:24 PM
. * * Reformation Robert   Sat Sep 14 2002 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Reformation Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:01 AM
. * * Easy Does It Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 15 2002 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Easy Does It HanKFranK   Sun Sep 15 2002 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Easy Does It mp3reed   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:40 AM
. * * LLC?? Anonymousnickd   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:47 AM
. * * The center has now emerged over water. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:01 AM
. * * Link not working...here's how you get there. Kevin   Sun Sep 15 2002 11:05 AM
. * * Re: LLC?? Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:56 AM
. * * With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first... Anonymous   Sun Sep 15 2002 02:18 AM
. * * Re: With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first... 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 06:39 AM
. * * TD #10 WXMAN RICHIE   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:01 AM
. * * Re: TD #10 57497479   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:06 AM
. * * Re: TD #10 caneman   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:21 AM
. * * Re: TD #10 Robert   Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Jeanine   Sun Sep 15 2002 09:58 AM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Joe   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:33 AM
. * * Re: TD #10/Robert Frank P   Sun Sep 15 2002 10:21 AM

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