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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update
Fri Oct 01 2004 01:29 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 30 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...edited for length-danielw
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. TROUGH FROM THIS FRONT REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 20N96W TO 25N91W. MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A NEARLY STATIONARY PATTERN. SUMMER SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO FLORIDA TODAY WITH RATHER DRY SURFACE AIR OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W IS THE MAIN STORY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM HISPANIOLA TO S AMERICA FROM 70W-75W. LOW IS MOVING W 15 KT WITH EVIDENCE THAT TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING WESTWARD... LEAVING AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ON ITS E SIDE WITH RIDGING FORMING IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FAIRLY LOW WITH ARUBA REPORTING 1008 MB THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. W OF THE LOW.... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE OCEAN. FARTHER INLAND.. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED TSTM DAY THERE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Jeanne and Lisa now in the North Atlantic	danielw	Fri Oct 01 2004 01:29 AM
Here we go again?	LadyStorm	Sat Oct 02 2004 11:26 AM
Spinning System S of Hati.	Grasshopper2	Thu Sep 30 2004 07:28 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	LI Phil	Thu Sep 30 2004 07:59 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	leetdan	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:14 PM
Discussion	LI Phil	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:21 PM
Re: Discussion	leetdan	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:53 PM
Holy ****	WXMAN RICHIE	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:40 PM
Re: Holy ****	matlon	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:36 PM
Re: Holy ****	grasshopper2	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:51 PM
Matthew	LI Phil	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:09 PM
Re: Matthew	grasshopper2	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:34 PM
yellow alert/green threat	HanKFranK	Thu Sep 30 2004 10:12 PM
Lat/Lon	LI Phil	Thu Sep 30 2004 10:03 PM
Re: Lat/Lon	grasshopper2	Fri Oct 01 2004 02:47 PM
Re: Lat/Lon	BeachBum	Fri Oct 01 2004 11:19 PM
Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday	danielw	Sat Oct 02 2004 05:21 AM
Re: Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday	James88	Sat Oct 02 2004 09:07 AM
Re: Tropical Weather Outlook-1030pm Friday	Matt033	Sat Oct 02 2004 10:38 AM
Re: Lat/Lon	andy1tom	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:44 PM
Re: Lat/Lon	doug	Fri Oct 01 2004 04:35 PM
Re: today's tropical discussion	doug	Fri Oct 01 2004 04:54 PM
Noon Friday	WXMAN RICHIE	Fri Oct 01 2004 05:12 PM
???	Brad	Fri Oct 01 2004 08:09 PM
Re: ???	Clark	Fri Oct 01 2004 09:28 PM
Re: ???	Keith234	Fri Oct 01 2004 09:42 PM
seconded notion	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 01 2004 09:40 PM
Re: ???	ChiBride	Fri Oct 01 2004 09:38 PM
Re: ???	Brad	Fri Oct 01 2004 08:10 PM
Hurricane Lisa	LI Phil	Fri Oct 01 2004 08:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa	Rabbit	Fri Oct 01 2004 08:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa	LI Phil	Fri Oct 01 2004 08:56 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa	James88	Fri Oct 01 2004 09:18 PM
Re: Noon Friday	Grasshopper2	Fri Oct 01 2004 05:59 PM
Re: Noon Friday	Ed in Va	Fri Oct 01 2004 05:26 PM
Re: Lat/Lon	BeachBum	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:33 PM
Re: Matthew	SteveieB	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:32 PM
Re: Matthew	James88	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:31 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	grasshopper2	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:02 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	Keith234	Thu Sep 30 2004 07:37 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	grasshopper2	Thu Sep 30 2004 08:07 PM
Re: Spinning System S of Hati.	Keith234	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:39 PM
8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	danielw	Fri Oct 01 2004 01:29 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	recmod	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:38 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	danielw	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:49 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	recmod	Fri Oct 01 2004 04:04 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	danielw	Fri Oct 01 2004 04:30 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	Keith234	Fri Oct 01 2004 10:48 AM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	cjzydeco	Fri Oct 01 2004 06:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa?	Staggy	Fri Oct 01 2004 07:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa?	LI Phil	Fri Oct 01 2004 07:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Lisa?	Grasshopper2	Fri Oct 01 2004 07:47 PM
Re: 6AM Tropical Update	danielw	Fri Oct 01 2004 11:08 AM
Re: 6AM Tropical Update	Terri	Fri Oct 01 2004 01:40 PM
NY Times and Global Warming	tpratch	Fri Oct 01 2004 02:43 PM
JB	LI Phil	Fri Oct 01 2004 02:27 PM
Re: JB	Terri	Sat Oct 02 2004 01:30 PM
Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 01 2004 02:17 AM
Re: Dr. Gray's Update	Staggy	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:19 AM
Re: Dr. Gray's Update	gailwarning	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:33 AM
Re: Dr. Gray's Update	sthorne	Fri Oct 01 2004 03:30 AM
Bonus Point Question	LI Phil	Fri Oct 01 2004 12:01 AM
Hombrew Development	Keith234	Thu Sep 30 2004 07:44 PM
10N 53W	Bloodstar	Thu Sep 30 2004 06:07 PM
? for Mets & long time trackers	SkeetoBite	Thu Sep 30 2004 10:31 AM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	ShanaTX	Thu Sep 30 2004 06:38 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	GuppieGrouper	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:29 AM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	Ronn	Thu Sep 30 2004 12:53 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	tpratch	Thu Sep 30 2004 02:47 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	VandyBrad	Thu Sep 30 2004 02:53 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	Ronn	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:29 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	Keith234	Thu Sep 30 2004 06:59 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	tpratch	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:56 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	danielw	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:05 AM
interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	MrSpock	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:17 AM
Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	BillD	Thu Sep 30 2004 01:02 PM
Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	MrSpock	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:52 PM
Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	Terri	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:18 PM
Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	Ed in Va	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:03 PM
Re: interesting post-storm analysis from PHL NWS	MrSpock	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:54 PM
Thursday Morning	LI Phil	Thu Sep 30 2004 02:58 PM
Re: Thursday Morning	tpratch	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:29 PM
Re: ? for Mets & long time trackers	VandyBrad	Thu Sep 30 2004 11:03 AM
Re: Jeanne and Lisa now in the North Atlantic	sthorne	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:14 AM
Tropical Weather Discussion	danielw	Thu Sep 30 2004 01:59 AM
Good news, from a board member	MrSpock	Thu Sep 30 2004 03:13 AM
Re: Good news, from a board member	danielw	Thu Sep 30 2004 09:36 AM

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