F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
22.7N 94.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: From the New York Times
      Sun Oct 03 2004 07:04 PM

It wouldn't post on this site either. The Times paper wants you to register so here is the article:


Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

September 30, 2004
By ANDREW C. REVKIN





Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase
in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming
decades, according to the most comprehensive computer
analysis done so far.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric
concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could
cause a typical hurricane to intensify about an extra half
step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says the
study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be nearly
20 percent more intense.

Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of
global warming. But this study is particularly significant,
independent experts said, because it used half a dozen
computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate
groups at institutions around the world. The long-term
trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls
and surges in hurricane activity that have been on display
in recent decades.

The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of
Climate and can be found at
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf.

The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away
the most comprehensive effort" to assess the question using
powerful computer simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a
hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology who has seen the paper but did not work on it.
About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and
storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."

Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was
too soon to know whether hurricanes would form more or less
frequently in a warmer world. Even as seas warm, for
example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the
towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.

But the authors said that even if the number of storms
simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would
substantially increase their potential for destruction.

Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global
warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a
point underlined at the United Nations this week by leaders
of several small island nations, who pleaded for more
attention to the potential for devastation from tidal
surges.

The new study used four climate centers' mathematical
approximations of the physics by which ocean heat fuels
tropical storms.

With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans
and atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results
were the same: more powerful storms and more rainfall, said
Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two authors. He is a
hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the
fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion
University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas
R. Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.

Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual
hurricanes using a more powerful version of the same
supercomputer simulations that generates Commerce
Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real
hurricanes.

Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State
University who was among the first to predict the recent
surge in Atlantic storm activity, said the new study was a
significant step in examining the impacts of a warmer
future.

But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the
extraordinary complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made
any scientific progress "baby steps toward a final answer."


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9


---------------------------------

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still MikeCAdministrator Sun Oct 03 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Shalafi   Sat Oct 02 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DMFischer   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Heather   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Bloodstar   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DroopGB31   Sat Oct 02 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Storm Cooper   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Second Shift   Sat Oct 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Wxwatcher2   Sat Oct 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * From the NWS in Houston/Galveston SoonerShawn   Sat Oct 02 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Ivy   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:11 PM
. * * CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... LI Phil   Sun Oct 03 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 09:35 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Shortbus   Mon Oct 04 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... FelixPuntaGorda   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:52 PM
. * * The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:11 PM
. * * My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Wed Oct 06 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Hurricane Frances Photo Gallery BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Terri   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Generator Reimbursement LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement anony   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement FelixPuntaGorda   Tue Oct 05 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Another fine weekend Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 07:13 PM
. * * stuff worth watching HanKFranK   Tue Oct 05 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching doug   Wed Oct 06 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Storm Cooper   Wed Oct 06 2004 07:20 PM
. * * NOT AGAIN!!!!! WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:15 PM
. * * finally HanKFranK   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: finally Keith234   Wed Oct 06 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave SoonerShawn   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Steve-up   Thu Oct 07 2004 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:45 AM
. * * if that is a tropical depression then... Bloodstar   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Re: New Thread.... Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching anony   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Gulf Stuff SoonerShawn   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Stuff MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:33 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Hurric   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... DMFischer   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Steve   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Fishing on the Gulf... Grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Rodney   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times BeachBum   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:57 PM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. Storm Cooper   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 06:31 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ticka1   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Rain in SE Texas SoonerShawn   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: FLASH FLOOD WARNING danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 12:54 AM
. * * JBs GOM Threat thoughts... LI Phil   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times Shalafi   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:20 AM
. * * Re: From the New York Times GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Outlook danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:10 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Storm Cooper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:40 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 560 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 45388

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center