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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
Re:Let's change things up a little.
      Mon Oct 04 2004 11:01 AM

Looks like convection is flaring up in the GOM this morning. The latest from the Hou/Gav NWS - could be a rainmaker for us here in SouthEast Texas come Wednesday/Thursday.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 040858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTH ETA/GFS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE DFW AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO FORM NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN AND GENERATE
SCATTERED TSRA OVER CENTRAL ZONES.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE TX
THIS EVENING. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
K-INDICES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SE TX. ALTHOUGH GFS IS LIKELY
OVERDOING PRECIP DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...EXPECT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW TO KEEP TSRA GOING MAINLY NRN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD
FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX.
MEANWHILE...BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NE
ZONES TUE AFTN WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL
GO HIGHEST POPS SOUTHERN HALF TUE...LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. FRONT
SHOULD STALL OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES TUE NIGHT...AND TEMPORARY DRYING
SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ENABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE WED...AND
UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES BY 12Z THU. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THU/THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY. WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SE TX..LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

INVERTED TROF/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SE TX WILL BE SLOW TO DRY OUT WITH UPPER
LOW STILL LINGERING OVER THE STATE. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY LOWERING
POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST WELL ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.

35
&&

.MARINE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA TOWARD
THE EAST COAST WILL SET UP A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS AS WELL
AS INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WED-FRI.
SHOWERS & TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS & BAYS WED
NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATERS AFTER
TUES. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
LBX WILL SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR FOG EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. REST OF TERMINALS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE 5-6SM
VARIETY. THE MAIN DILEMMA FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP
COVERAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS FOR IAH SOUTHWARD IN THE 20-24Z TIME PERIOD.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CLL...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN THE DFW AREA ARE DEPICTED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THRU THE DAY - POSSIBLY BY OUTFLOWS. IF HIS
OCCURS IT WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MAY KEEP CB'S OR VCSH'S GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (IAH
SOUTHWARD) INTO THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PUSH. DON'T ANTICIPATE CEILINGS BEING MUCH
OF AN ISSUE TODAY...MAINLY VSBY'S IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
OVERALL...TOUGH FCSTS THRU WED SINCE THEY WILL HINGE ON
LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THESE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES AND/OR BOUNDARIES
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT VERY FAR OUT IN TIME. 47

&&


.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 68 82 66 83 / 50 50 50 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 71 84 67 84 / 30 40 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 76 84 75 84 / 20 30 50 30 40
&&

$$

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 04 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Shalafi   Sat Oct 02 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DMFischer   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Heather   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Bloodstar   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DroopGB31   Sat Oct 02 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Storm Cooper   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Second Shift   Sat Oct 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Wxwatcher2   Sat Oct 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * From the NWS in Houston/Galveston SoonerShawn   Sat Oct 02 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Ivy   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:11 PM
. * * CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... LI Phil   Sun Oct 03 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 09:35 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Shortbus   Mon Oct 04 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... FelixPuntaGorda   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:52 PM
. * * The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:11 PM
. * * My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Wed Oct 06 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Hurricane Frances Photo Gallery BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Terri   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Generator Reimbursement LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement anony   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement FelixPuntaGorda   Tue Oct 05 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Another fine weekend Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 07:13 PM
. * * stuff worth watching HanKFranK   Tue Oct 05 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching doug   Wed Oct 06 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Storm Cooper   Wed Oct 06 2004 07:20 PM
. * * NOT AGAIN!!!!! WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:15 PM
. * * finally HanKFranK   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: finally Keith234   Wed Oct 06 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave SoonerShawn   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Steve-up   Thu Oct 07 2004 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:45 AM
. * * if that is a tropical depression then... Bloodstar   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Re: New Thread.... Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching anony   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Gulf Stuff SoonerShawn   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Stuff MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:33 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Hurric   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... DMFischer   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Steve   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Fishing on the Gulf... Grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Rodney   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times BeachBum   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:57 PM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. Storm Cooper   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 06:31 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ticka1   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Rain in SE Texas SoonerShawn   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: FLASH FLOOD WARNING danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 12:54 AM
. * * JBs GOM Threat thoughts... LI Phil   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times Shalafi   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:20 AM
. * * Re: From the New York Times GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Outlook danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:10 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Storm Cooper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:40 AM

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