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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
22.7N 94.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JBs GOM Threat thoughts...
      Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM

"The Gulf looks dirty this morning, and a setup for a drenching coastal rain for Texas and Louisiana is there, and with it comes the chance for tropical development. The type of development it would be is more along the lines of an Allison or Frances (1998 version), a system that concentrates its energy so that big wind and rain problems would occur only near and northeast of the center. The tropical wave is now in the southern Gulf. The idea is its energy feeds northward toward the Texas coastal bend over the next several days. This develops low pressure near or just east of the South Texas coast by Wednesday night, which then drifts slowly northward or northeastward. The tightening gradient between the low and the big high to the northeast sends a large area of 20- to 35-knot east to southeast winds through the northern Gulf, which tighten up and focus over the northwest Gulf Thursday and Friday.

Even without such development, this is a nasty-looking rain threat. The development would just tack a name onto it, and chances are that we could be going toward one of those arguments (as with Allison) that still persists as to what it is. However, the practical weather aspect right now is that there is a flood threat later in the week for southeast Texas and Louisiana. The flood threat earlier is out on the southern High Plains. There is probably going to be an area where there is not nearly as much rain.

The Canadian and UKMET and GFS are all lined up with northwestern Gulf development and the one needs a calculator for Canadian rain amounts. Suffice it to say this has been talked about here for awhile. Right now, I see no need to change the idea on the threat as far as the heavy rain goes. Whether or not there is a fight on Friday as to if it is named, my feeling now is there is a good chance that at least tropical-storm force winds are in the northwest Gulf out of this Thursday night or Friday. But as we saw with Allison, we don't need a deep storm to do the dirty work as the lowest pressure at first landfall was only 1003 mb."

Hey Keith, you got your lat/lon backwards! Unless that is, you live in Greenland part time

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Shalafi   Sat Oct 02 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DMFischer   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:52 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Heather   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Bloodstar   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:31 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! DroopGB31   Sat Oct 02 2004 06:38 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Storm Cooper   Sat Oct 02 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: WoooHooo We have daylight! Second Shift   Sat Oct 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still Wxwatcher2   Sat Oct 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * From the NWS in Houston/Galveston SoonerShawn   Sat Oct 02 2004 03:12 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Ivy   Sat Oct 02 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:16 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:19 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:48 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Clark   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston cjzydeco   Sun Oct 03 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:11 PM
. * * CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... LI Phil   Sun Oct 03 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 09:35 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Shortbus   Mon Oct 04 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... FelixPuntaGorda   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:52 PM
. * * The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:11 PM
. * * My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:12 AM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page recmod   Wed Oct 06 2004 02:12 AM
. * * Hurricane Frances Photo Gallery BeachBum   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Terri   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Generator Reimbursement LI Phil   Tue Oct 05 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement anony   Tue Oct 05 2004 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Generator Reimbursement FelixPuntaGorda   Tue Oct 05 2004 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Another fine weekend Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 05 2004 07:13 PM
. * * stuff worth watching HanKFranK   Tue Oct 05 2004 08:45 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching doug   Wed Oct 06 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Storm Cooper   Wed Oct 06 2004 07:20 PM
. * * NOT AGAIN!!!!! WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:15 PM
. * * finally HanKFranK   Wed Oct 06 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: finally Keith234   Wed Oct 06 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave SoonerShawn   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave ticka1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Steve-up   Thu Oct 07 2004 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:45 AM
. * * if that is a tropical depression then... Bloodstar   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:37 AM
. * * Re: New Thread.... Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:20 AM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 11:57 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching anony   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: stuff worth watching Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 06 2004 01:15 PM
. * * Gulf Stuff SoonerShawn   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Gulf Stuff MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 09:30 PM
. * * Re: My Hurricane Web-Page Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:33 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Hurric   Tue Oct 05 2004 01:32 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave Keith234   Tue Oct 05 2004 10:54 AM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Kimberley Clark   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... DMFischer   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Steve   Mon Oct 04 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Fishing on the Gulf... Grasshopper2   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... Rodney   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... sthorne   Mon Oct 04 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 06:58 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times BeachBum   Sun Oct 03 2004 10:57 PM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. Storm Cooper   Mon Oct 04 2004 02:36 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 06:31 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ticka1   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:01 AM
. * * Re:Let's change things up a little. ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Rain in SE Texas SoonerShawn   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas ShanaTX   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Rain in SE Texas Keith234   Mon Oct 04 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: FLASH FLOOD WARNING danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 05 2004 12:54 AM
. * * JBs GOM Threat thoughts... LI Phil   Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times LONNY307   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: From the New York Times Shalafi   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:20 AM
. * * Re: From the New York Times GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 04 2004 11:41 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston GuppieGrouper   Sun Oct 03 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Keith234   Sun Oct 03 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Tropical Weather Outlook danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 03 2004 07:10 AM
. * * Re: From the NWS in Houston/Galveston Storm Cooper   Sun Oct 03 2004 02:40 AM

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