.SHORT TERM...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN GULF...THAT IS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO ON INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ETA HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION...TRACKING SLOWER AND MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND SITUATED IN AR BY 84 HRS. HARD TO GO AGAINST GFS SOLUTION AND WILL TEND TOWARDS IT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND THE DGEX. THE 06Z GFS HAS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DGEX TENDS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AFTER CHATTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL APPLY GREATER WEIGHT TO THE GFS. BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS...DO NOT THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
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