there.. they've decided to recognize it for what it is at last. if the gfs ideas and the forecast philosophy of the previous discussions pans out, this system will track into a heavy shear environment and become baroclinic in nature. a more northward than eastward track will result in a lopsided, sheared low of dubious tropical nature. the other option is that it develops quickly and jets ENE into the gulf like josephine did back in '96. if it's up near brownsville tomorrow, nix that idea.. but if it deepens overnight into a classified system watch out NE gulf coast.
strung out disturbed weather from east of the antilles to up northeast of bermuda is a developing complex system that should have a low moving northward over the weekend bombing out (most likely extratropical).. with a deep layer low forming on it's western flank over marginal waters. minor potential for a short lived high latitude hybrid here. further south wave energy is plodding west into shear and mostly being drawn northward.
SOI just went negative today, so backing in the deep tropics may start upping the chances of caribbean action, or even more action in the southeast atlantic.. next week. nothing really showing up on the long range, but the pattern should begin to dictate where disturbed weather musters.
also, as mentioned by steve h, deep trough forecast to descend into the eastern u.s. near mid-month, with a noreaster-type storm running from the gulf up the appalachains/atlantic coastal plain the weekend after this one. the associated pattern would favor a storm coming up out of the caribbean were there to be one present.. something to keep in mind. the globals aren't seeing anything just yet...
HF 2126z06october
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