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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Storm Cooper
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Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL

Re: Five for Florida?
Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM

Part of tally AFD...

.SHORT TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING TO THE NE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ETA AND GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE GULF LOW ON THE 12 UTC RUNS. AFTER BEING VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN
E-NE MOVING SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED MUCH
MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN THE ETA...AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHWARD THROUGH
LOUISIANNA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE IN A VERY
BAROCLINIC MANNER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE WATCHING FOR VERY
CLOSELY. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE INLAND TO OUR WEST...WE WILL END UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
LESS OR A SHORTER PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...PLAN ON
NUDGING THE GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER
POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...CURRENT THINKING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED CONDITION MAY LAST
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AS THERE IS A STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
ETA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Something new in the Bay of Campeche	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM
HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM
Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM
Scatt...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM
Five for Florida?	Kal	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	andy1tom	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	grasshopper2	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	andy1tom	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	grasshopper2	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	DroopGB31	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:43 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	doug	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:53 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 03:19 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Bloodstar	Thu Oct 07 2004 04:25 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:04 PM
recon	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:50 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:53 PM
Re: recon	Anony	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM
Re: recon	Keith(234)	Thu Oct 07 2004 07:17 PM
Re: recon	summercyclone	Thu Oct 07 2004 07:29 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 08:08 PM
Re: recon	Rabbit	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:01 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:03 PM
Re: recon	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:12 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:33 PM
Re: recon	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:14 PM
Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:27 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:51 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:04 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:17 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:33 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Redbird	Fri Oct 08 2004 09:49 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	DMFischer	Fri Oct 08 2004 10:15 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	GuppieGrouper	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Fri Oct 08 2004 07:13 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 08 2004 07:41 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Katie	Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 AM
Not for nothin', but...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 11:28 AM
Re: Not for nothin', but...	anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:07 PM
Re: lets wake up	doug	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Ronn	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:38 PM
Re: lets wake up	Ronn	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:09 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:40 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:15 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:23 PM
Matthew Advisory #1	recmod	Fri Oct 08 2004 05:05 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:28 PM
Re: lets wake up	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:43 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
Re: lets wake up	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
Re: lets wake up	anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:17 PM
Maybe Matthew...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:28 PM
Re: Maybe Matthew...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:32 PM
Re: Maybe Matthew...	Rasvar	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:38 PM
Matthew @ 5:00	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM
Re: Matthew @ 5:00	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:55 PM
Re: Matthew @ 5:00	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 05:00 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:29 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:30 PM
Re: lets wake up	Rabbit	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:20 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:31 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:25 PM
Re: lets wake up	Steve hirschb.	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:52 PM
Re: lets wake up	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:28 PM
incipient matthew	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:46 PM
Re: incipient matthew	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:03 PM
More West	Cocoa Beach	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:08 PM
Re: Not for nothin', but...	James88	Fri Oct 08 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	doug	Fri Oct 08 2004 09:21 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:47 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:32 AM
RE:Tropical Weather Discussion	DMFischer	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:59 PM
Re: recon	Rabbit	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:37 PM
water vapor	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:31 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	devin	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Scatt...	Ronn	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Scatt...	James88	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM
SW Gulf Of Mexico	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM
5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM

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