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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: lets wake up
      Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM

The NHC is waiting on recon info to determine if this is a TD. It sure looks like one to me. There is really no reason to rush classification of this system. It is weak and the NHC does not want to create a frenzy if it is not necessary. I concur with that discretion. With that said, this system is likely to become Matthew shortly. It has enough tropical characteristics to classify it as such. The NHC will not refrain from classifying this system if the recon reports a closed surface low and appropriate wind speeds.

This system is typical of many October tropical cyclones that interact with mid latitude troughs. It will be lop-sided, and it will struggle with vertical stacking, but it will have a good chance of becoming a 65-70mph TS, like Josephine in 1996. It will maintain enough tropical characteristics through landfall, at which time it will be completing its conversion to a baroclinic low.

Another quick point. We always need to carefully watch out for re-formations of the LLC in these systems. Sometimes, a new LLC will form closer to the MLC and beneath deeper convection, leading to bursts of intensification, and slight track changes. TS Gordon of 2000 reminds me of this.

God Bless,
Ronn

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Something new in the Bay of Campeche Storm Cooper Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM
. * * HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM
. * * Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM
. * * Scatt... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM
. * * Five for Florida? Kal   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? andy1tom   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? grasshopper2   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? andy1tom   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? grasshopper2   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? DroopGB31   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? doug   Thu Oct 07 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? Bloodstar   Thu Oct 07 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:04 PM
. * * recon Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:50 PM
. * * Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:53 PM
. * * Re: recon Anony   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM
. * * Re: recon Keith(234)   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:17 PM
. * * Re: recon summercyclone   Thu Oct 07 2004 07:29 PM
. * * Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 08:08 PM
. * * Re: recon Rabbit   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:03 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:12 PM
. * * Re: recon Keith234   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:33 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:14 PM
. * * Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... ShanaTX   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Thu Oct 07 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Redbird   Fri Oct 08 2004 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... DMFischer   Fri Oct 08 2004 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Fri Oct 08 2004 07:13 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... GuppieGrouper   Fri Oct 08 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Katie   Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Not for nothin', but... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Not for nothin', but... anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up doug   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:18 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Ronn   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:38 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Ronn   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:15 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Matthew Advisory #1 recmod   Fri Oct 08 2004 05:05 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up anony   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Maybe Matthew... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Maybe Matthew... LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Maybe Matthew... Rasvar   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Matthew @ 5:00 LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Matthew @ 5:00 Kimberley Clark   Fri Oct 08 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Matthew @ 5:00 LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 05:00 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Rabbit   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up LI Phil   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Steve hirschb.   Fri Oct 08 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM
. * * Re: lets wake up Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:28 PM
. * * incipient matthew HanKFranK   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: incipient matthew scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 02:03 PM
. * * More West Cocoa Beach   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Not for nothin', but... James88   Fri Oct 08 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... doug   Fri Oct 08 2004 09:21 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... scottsvb1   Fri Oct 08 2004 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 08 2004 03:32 AM
. * * RE:Tropical Weather Discussion DMFischer   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Scott, I'm confused... Hurric   Thu Oct 07 2004 09:59 PM
. * * Re: recon Rabbit   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:37 PM
. * * water vapor Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 07 2004 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? Storm Cooper   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? scottsvb1   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? devin   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Five for Florida? LI Phil   Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Scatt... Ronn   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Scatt... James88   Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM
. * * SW Gulf Of Mexico danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM
. * * 5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM

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