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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL

Re: lets wake up
Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM

The NHC is waiting on recon info to determine if this is a TD. It sure looks like one to me. There is really no reason to rush classification of this system. It is weak and the NHC does not want to create a frenzy if it is not necessary. I concur with that discretion. With that said, this system is likely to become Matthew shortly. It has enough tropical characteristics to classify it as such. The NHC will not refrain from classifying this system if the recon reports a closed surface low and appropriate wind speeds.

This system is typical of many October tropical cyclones that interact with mid latitude troughs. It will be lop-sided, and it will struggle with vertical stacking, but it will have a good chance of becoming a 65-70mph TS, like Josephine in 1996. It will maintain enough tropical characteristics through landfall, at which time it will be completing its conversion to a baroclinic low.

Another quick point. We always need to carefully watch out for re-formations of the LLC in these systems. Sometimes, a new LLC will form closer to the MLC and beneath deeper convection, leading to bursts of intensification, and slight track changes. TS Gordon of 2000 reminds me of this.

God Bless,
Ronn

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Something new in the Bay of Campeche	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM
HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 04:34 AM
Re: HVY Rain possibility for W and N Gulf Coast	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 08:06 AM
Scatt...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:22 AM
Five for Florida?	Kal	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:07 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:27 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	andy1tom	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:36 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	grasshopper2	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:04 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	andy1tom	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:55 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	grasshopper2	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:34 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	DroopGB31	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:43 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	doug	Thu Oct 07 2004 02:53 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 03:19 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Bloodstar	Thu Oct 07 2004 04:25 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:04 PM
recon	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:50 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:53 PM
Re: recon	Anony	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM
Re: recon	Keith(234)	Thu Oct 07 2004 07:17 PM
Re: recon	summercyclone	Thu Oct 07 2004 07:29 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 08:08 PM
Re: recon	Rabbit	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:01 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:03 PM
Re: recon	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:12 PM
Re: recon	Keith234	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:33 PM
Re: recon	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:14 PM
Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:27 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:51 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	ShanaTX	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:04 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:17 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Thu Oct 07 2004 10:33 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Redbird	Fri Oct 08 2004 09:49 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	DMFischer	Fri Oct 08 2004 10:15 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	GuppieGrouper	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Fri Oct 08 2004 07:13 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	GuppieGrouper	Fri Oct 08 2004 07:41 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Katie	Fri Oct 08 2004 10:50 AM
Not for nothin', but...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 11:28 AM
Re: Not for nothin', but...	anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:07 PM
Re: lets wake up	doug	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Ronn	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:59 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:38 PM
Re: lets wake up	Ronn	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:09 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:40 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:15 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:23 PM
Matthew Advisory #1	recmod	Fri Oct 08 2004 05:05 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:28 PM
Re: lets wake up	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:43 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
Re: lets wake up	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:53 PM
Re: lets wake up	anony	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:17 PM
Maybe Matthew...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:28 PM
Re: Maybe Matthew...	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:32 PM
Re: Maybe Matthew...	Rasvar	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:38 PM
Matthew @ 5:00	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:54 PM
Re: Matthew @ 5:00	Kimberley Clark	Fri Oct 08 2004 04:55 PM
Re: Matthew @ 5:00	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 05:00 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:29 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:30 PM
Re: lets wake up	Rabbit	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:20 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:31 PM
Re: lets wake up	LI Phil	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:25 PM
Re: lets wake up	Steve hirschb.	Fri Oct 08 2004 12:52 PM
Re: lets wake up	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:18 PM
Re: lets wake up	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:28 PM
incipient matthew	HanKFranK	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:46 PM
Re: incipient matthew	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 02:03 PM
More West	Cocoa Beach	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:08 PM
Re: Not for nothin', but...	James88	Fri Oct 08 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	doug	Fri Oct 08 2004 09:21 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	scottsvb1	Fri Oct 08 2004 01:47 AM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Storm Cooper	Fri Oct 08 2004 03:32 AM
RE:Tropical Weather Discussion	DMFischer	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:14 PM
Re: Scott, I'm confused...	Hurric	Thu Oct 07 2004 09:59 PM
Re: recon	Rabbit	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:37 PM
water vapor	Storm Hunter	Thu Oct 07 2004 06:31 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 01:19 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	Storm Cooper	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	scottsvb1	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:40 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	devin	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:48 PM
Re: Five for Florida?	LI Phil	Thu Oct 07 2004 12:52 PM
Re: Scatt...	Ronn	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Scatt...	James88	Thu Oct 07 2004 11:53 AM
SW Gulf Of Mexico	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:19 AM
5AM CDT Tropical WX Outlook	danielw	Thu Oct 07 2004 05:25 AM

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