F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)
22.3N 97.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
W at 13 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 92LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Nicole thoughts
      Mon Oct 11 2004 03:20 AM

Note the last paragraph of the 11pm discussion & the statement about potential future development. This is what is called warm-core seclusion development, where an extratropical system acquires a warm-core by some means -- usually as the lower-level core becomes isolated (or, as in the title, secluded) from the outer, colder environment -- and usually results in explosive development.

The GFDL model in the cyclone phase space captures the storm very well currently and hints at this development, bringing the storm to a pressure below 960mb at it approaches Canada in a few days. For now, however, it shows a relatively weak, relatively shallow warm core -- i.e. weak warm core at low levels, cold(er) core at upper levels -- and this is a favorable scenario for such development as hinted by the NHC with the right forcing, as is expected down the line.

The global models have been predicting a significant system to move into the eastern U.S. and offshore later this week, providing the aforementioned forcing. Just this system alone -- perhaps the first significant front of the season -- would be noteworthy enough, but things could get really, really interesting off-shore later this week if things play out just right. I don't expect a nor'easter -- too far off-shore, among other things -- but some nice extratropical/quasi-subtropical development isn't out of the question by any means.

With the tropics essentially quiet otherwise, it's one to watch down the line.

Had the chance to drive through Matthew twice, once Friday and once today, going between here and Louisiana (even had the chance to meet another member of the board in person!). Driving in the rain is no fun, but that's about all it was -- a rain event. Parts of Louisiana really needed the rain, however, so it's not all bad -- just not all of it at once would've been better. It hardly had the look of a tropical system much of its life, taking on extratropical/subtropical features from its inception, but it'll go down in the books as the 13th storm of the year.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Oct 11 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Terra   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Systems Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda ShanaTX   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda ShanaTX   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Hurricane Season 2004 Website recmod   Mon Oct 11 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season 2004 Website Anony   Mon Oct 11 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Large waves from Karl Domino   Mon Oct 11 2004 09:02 AM
. * * Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2004 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2004 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm Steve   Mon Oct 11 2004 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 11 2004 02:48 AM
. * * Nicole thoughts Clark   Mon Oct 11 2004 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Matt033   Mon Oct 11 2004 03:28 AM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Clark   Mon Oct 11 2004 04:13 AM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Matt033   Mon Oct 11 2004 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Clark   Mon Oct 11 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 05:26 PM
. * * Overview of Current Weather Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Back after a nice respite (for me) LI Phil   Mon Oct 11 2004 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) LI Phil   Mon Oct 11 2004 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) Redbird   Tue Oct 12 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 10:29 PM
. * * New Invest Bloodstar   Mon Oct 11 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: New Invest Keith234   Mon Oct 11 2004 11:44 PM
. * * Re: New Invest HumanCookie   Tue Oct 12 2004 12:37 AM
. * * Re: New Invest Ricreig   Tue Oct 12 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Current Weather Overview 10/12 Keith234   Tue Oct 12 2004 08:48 PM
. * * Thoughts from Thomas WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Oct 12 2004 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Thoughts from Thomas LONNY307   Wed Oct 13 2004 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Thoughts from Thomas Storm Cooper   Wed Oct 13 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) Katie   Mon Oct 11 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 11 2004 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Nicole thoughts DroopGB31   Mon Oct 11 2004 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Read RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Oct 11 2004 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Matt033   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 08:51 PM
. * * More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season recmod   Sun Oct 10 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season ShanaTX   Sun Oct 10 2004 10:06 PM
. * * Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season Keith234   Sun Oct 10 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda Rabbit   Sun Oct 10 2004 05:02 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 778 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 29286

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center