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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Caribbean Update
      Fri Oct 29 2004 07:43 AM

Keith, GFS always "bears watching", but the latest update isn't indicating any tropical systems moving Northward.
The 850mb 15*C line extends to most all of the Gulf Coast and even into the GoM at one point. The mets here can give you a better handle on tropical systems and the 15*C line, but I would think that would make the air to cool and dry for a tropical system to sustain itself. BTW 15*C is 59*F, for conversion.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/ten_s_loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_850_su_loop.shtml

TWC is watching an enlarging area of moderate to deep convection centered near 15.0N / 75.0W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 29 OCT 2004
....TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 2324 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA AND AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE OVER THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/180.jpg
The black dots on the ramsdis shots are from the lightning in the system!


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Activity Near Bermuda Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Oct 29 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Clark   Sun Oct 24 2004 03:19 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Sun Oct 24 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Clark   Mon Oct 25 2004 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 25 2004 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Rabbit   Mon Oct 25 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Bermuda   Mon Oct 25 2004 07:56 PM
. * * mjo LoisCane   Mon Oct 25 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: mjo LI Phil   Mon Oct 25 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: mjo James88   Mon Oct 25 2004 10:16 PM
. * * hanging in there bobbi   Wed Oct 27 2004 05:35 PM
. * * This is weird Keith234   Thu Oct 28 2004 10:33 PM
. * * Caribbean Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 29 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Update Keith234   Fri Oct 29 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Update bobbi   Fri Oct 29 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Update Domino   Fri Oct 29 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Update Keith234   Fri Oct 29 2004 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Update Storm Cooper   Fri Oct 29 2004 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Ed in Va   Mon Oct 25 2004 03:25 PM
. * * activity near the islands LoisCane   Mon Oct 25 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Mon Oct 25 2004 03:41 PM
. * * herr otto? HanKFranK   Sun Oct 24 2004 07:53 PM
. * * Re: herr otto? Keith234   Sun Oct 24 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: herr otto? James88   Sun Oct 24 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 24 2004 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda Keith234   Sun Oct 24 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda LI Phil   Sat Oct 23 2004 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 23 2004 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 24 2004 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Activity Near Bermuda danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 24 2004 12:22 AM
. * * Re:Tropical Weather Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 24 2004 12:10 AM
. * * Re:Tropical Weather Update Heather   Sun Oct 24 2004 12:58 AM

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