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Area in the MDR Atlantic being watched for later next week, 20% chance of development. Leeward Islands need to watch closely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 18 (Beryl) , Major: 331 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 331 (Idalia) Major: 331 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
cast a vote for no more storms
      Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM

we're at that time of year where the chances at further activity are getting very bleak. aside from a september lingerer and a pair of hybrid type systems near the secondary peak, there have been no more named storms (though a convincing argument could be made that there were a couple of other subtropical systems later in october) in the last month.
the backing with ridging-type pattern needed to trip a west caribbean system hasn't made a convincing appearance.. which isn't to say that it still can't happen, but the chances of a purely tropical system in the atlantic basin are getting close to nil now. a good blocking pattern in the north atlantic could drop one of those deep layer systems down in between bermuda and the azores and give us one more to follow, but it's looking like the landfall threat for the u.s. is all but gone now. otto may still show up, but don't expect to meet him personally.
it's time to start thinking 2005.. check the expected indices and look at some analogs to start getting your ideas for next year.. late in the month i'll post a forum thread for early predictions. most everybody did better than me with their seasonal forecast.. i'll be looking to peg '05.
take it easy, y'all.
HF 2356z02november

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 02 2004 07:07 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* October Nearing a Close MikeCAdministrator Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Something completely different ShanaTX   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Dvorak for 91L Bloodstar   Tue Nov 09 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L LI Phil   Tue Nov 09 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Spike   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Keith234   Tue Nov 09 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Heather   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:33 PM
. * * 4 Storms Retired This Year? recmodster   Mon Nov 01 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: October Nearing a Close LI Phil   Fri Oct 29 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Get out and VOTE! cocoa Beach   Mon Nov 01 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: October Nearing a Close Keith234   Fri Oct 29 2004 05:39 PM
. * * a lot of color down there suddenly Lois   Sun Oct 31 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Keith234   Sun Oct 31 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly danielwAdministrator   Mon Nov 01 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Ricreig   Thu Nov 04 2004 05:04 PM
. * * CFHC family...Danny rules! LI Phil   Thu Nov 04 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! LI Phil   Thu Nov 04 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! Steve hirschb.   Fri Nov 05 2004 08:06 AM
. * * Some thoughts... LI Phil   Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Some thoughts... Ed in Va   Fri Nov 05 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Some thoughts... danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 05 2004 08:32 PM
. * * As the season winds down... LI Phil   Fri Nov 05 2004 09:06 PM
. * * Past Novembers... James88   Sat Nov 06 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sat Nov 06 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... James88   Sat Nov 06 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... LI Phil   Sat Nov 06 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sun Nov 07 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Panhandler   Sun Nov 07 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sun Nov 07 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... HanKFranK   Sun Nov 07 2004 11:26 PM
. * * This November bobbi   Mon Nov 08 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: This November Keith234   Mon Nov 08 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... James88   Sun Nov 07 2004 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Storm Cooper   Sun Nov 07 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! Ricreig   Thu Nov 04 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Keith234   Tue Nov 02 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: BOC ? javlin   Wed Nov 03 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: BOC ? James88   Wed Nov 03 2004 03:12 PM
. * * cast a vote for no more storms HanKFranK   Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Visit the E&N Forum... LI Phil   Tue Nov 02 2004 07:34 PM

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