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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Some thoughts...
      Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM

from JB:

The monster high that develops Wednesday night and Thursday off the East Coast has a strong east flow underneath it, and a hybrid tropical system should evolve by Thursday morning near 27.5 north and 70 west underneath it.

...the energy coming in digs and tries to pick up the offshore storm sending a major gale center with possible snow on its western side over the Appalachians and a nasty nor'easter on the coast late next week with wind and rain. The Canadian is, by far, the most ambitious with this right now. At the very least, a beach erosion and tidal flooding situation is setting up for the south Atlantic coast. At the worst, a major storm rides northward with complications galore.

It seems like a deja Jeanne here with the GFS as far as position goes. Remember the consistent eastward bias with Jeanne, where a piece would be left behind, but it kept jumping the storm out because it is weak on the feedback of heat from the Tropics. I think we have the same thing here. So while energy will escape, I like the overwhelming model consensus from other sources, based on the pattern I am describing, of the true final development back closer to 70 west.

I want no part of the potential nor'easter...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* October Nearing a Close MikeCAdministrator Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Something completely different ShanaTX   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Dvorak for 91L Bloodstar   Tue Nov 09 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L LI Phil   Tue Nov 09 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Spike   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Keith234   Tue Nov 09 2004 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dvorak for 91L Heather   Tue Nov 09 2004 05:33 PM
. * * 4 Storms Retired This Year? recmodster   Mon Nov 01 2004 12:08 AM
. * * Re: October Nearing a Close LI Phil   Fri Oct 29 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Get out and VOTE! cocoa Beach   Mon Nov 01 2004 03:30 PM
. * * Re: October Nearing a Close Keith234   Fri Oct 29 2004 05:39 PM
. * * a lot of color down there suddenly Lois   Sun Oct 31 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Keith234   Sun Oct 31 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly danielwAdministrator   Mon Nov 01 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Ricreig   Thu Nov 04 2004 05:04 PM
. * * CFHC family...Danny rules! LI Phil   Thu Nov 04 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! LI Phil   Thu Nov 04 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! Steve hirschb.   Fri Nov 05 2004 08:06 AM
. * * Some thoughts... LI Phil   Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Some thoughts... Ed in Va   Fri Nov 05 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Some thoughts... danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 05 2004 08:32 PM
. * * As the season winds down... LI Phil   Fri Nov 05 2004 09:06 PM
. * * Past Novembers... James88   Sat Nov 06 2004 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sat Nov 06 2004 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... James88   Sat Nov 06 2004 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... LI Phil   Sat Nov 06 2004 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sun Nov 07 2004 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Panhandler   Sun Nov 07 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Ricreig   Sun Nov 07 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... HanKFranK   Sun Nov 07 2004 11:26 PM
. * * This November bobbi   Mon Nov 08 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: This November Keith234   Mon Nov 08 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... James88   Sun Nov 07 2004 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Past Novembers... Storm Cooper   Sun Nov 07 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! Ricreig   Thu Nov 04 2004 06:00 PM
. * * Re: a lot of color down there suddenly Keith234   Tue Nov 02 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: BOC ? javlin   Wed Nov 03 2004 11:49 AM
. * * Re: BOC ? James88   Wed Nov 03 2004 03:12 PM
. * * cast a vote for no more storms HanKFranK   Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM
. * * Visit the E&N Forum... LI Phil   Tue Nov 02 2004 07:34 PM

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