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Area in the MDR Atlantic being watched for later next week, 20% chance of development. Leeward Islands need to watch closely.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 18 (Beryl) , Major: 331 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 331 (Idalia) Major: 331 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)

Some thoughts...
Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM

from JB:

The monster high that develops Wednesday night and Thursday off the East Coast has a strong east flow underneath it, and a hybrid tropical system should evolve by Thursday morning near 27.5 north and 70 west underneath it.

...the energy coming in digs and tries to pick up the offshore storm sending a major gale center with possible snow on its western side over the Appalachians and a nasty nor'easter on the coast late next week with wind and rain. The Canadian is, by far, the most ambitious with this right now. At the very least, a beach erosion and tidal flooding situation is setting up for the south Atlantic coast. At the worst, a major storm rides northward with complications galore.

It seems like a deja Jeanne here with the GFS as far as position goes. Remember the consistent eastward bias with Jeanne, where a piece would be left behind, but it kept jumping the storm out because it is weak on the feedback of heat from the Tropics. I think we have the same thing here. So while energy will escape, I like the overwhelming model consensus from other sources, based on the pattern I am describing, of the true final development back closer to 70 west.

I want no part of the potential nor'easter...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
October Nearing a Close	MikeC	Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
Something completely different	ShanaTX	Tue Nov 09 2004 05:45 PM
Dvorak for 91L	Bloodstar	Tue Nov 09 2004 03:55 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L	LI Phil	Tue Nov 09 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L	Spike	Tue Nov 09 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L	Keith234	Tue Nov 09 2004 08:40 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L	Heather	Tue Nov 09 2004 05:33 PM
4 Storms Retired This Year?	recmodster	Mon Nov 01 2004 12:08 AM
Re: October Nearing a Close	LI Phil	Fri Oct 29 2004 02:59 PM
Get out and VOTE!	cocoa Beach	Mon Nov 01 2004 03:30 PM
Re: October Nearing a Close	Keith234	Fri Oct 29 2004 05:39 PM
a lot of color down there suddenly	Lois	Sun Oct 31 2004 03:52 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly	Keith234	Sun Oct 31 2004 05:45 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly	danielw	Mon Nov 01 2004 08:12 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly	Ricreig	Thu Nov 04 2004 05:04 PM
CFHC family...Danny rules!	LI Phil	Thu Nov 04 2004 05:19 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!	LI Phil	Thu Nov 04 2004 06:03 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!	Steve hirschb.	Fri Nov 05 2004 08:06 AM
Some thoughts...	LI Phil	Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
Re: Some thoughts...	Ed in Va	Fri Nov 05 2004 04:19 PM
Re: Some thoughts...	danielw	Fri Nov 05 2004 08:32 PM
As the season winds down...	LI Phil	Fri Nov 05 2004 09:06 PM
Past Novembers...	James88	Sat Nov 06 2004 08:38 AM
Re: Past Novembers...	Ricreig	Sat Nov 06 2004 10:18 AM
Re: Past Novembers...	James88	Sat Nov 06 2004 10:43 AM
Re: Past Novembers...	LI Phil	Sat Nov 06 2004 06:57 PM
Re: Past Novembers...	Ricreig	Sun Nov 07 2004 01:39 AM
Re: Past Novembers...	Panhandler	Sun Nov 07 2004 12:38 PM
Re: Past Novembers...	Ricreig	Sun Nov 07 2004 04:38 PM
Re: Past Novembers...	HanKFranK	Sun Nov 07 2004 11:26 PM
This November	bobbi	Mon Nov 08 2004 11:18 AM
Re: This November	Keith234	Mon Nov 08 2004 02:40 PM
Re: Past Novembers...	James88	Sun Nov 07 2004 04:42 AM
Re: Past Novembers...	Storm Cooper	Sun Nov 07 2004 12:31 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!	Ricreig	Thu Nov 04 2004 06:00 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly	Keith234	Tue Nov 02 2004 06:04 PM
Re: BOC ?	javlin	Wed Nov 03 2004 11:49 AM
Re: BOC ?	James88	Wed Nov 03 2004 03:12 PM
cast a vote for no more storms	HanKFranK	Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM
Visit the E&N Forum...	LI Phil	Tue Nov 02 2004 07:34 PM

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