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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 17 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: 91L & 92L
      Thu Nov 11 2004 11:59 PM

I agree -- neither has a really good shot at developing.

While we may see trough fracture occur over the far eastern Atlantic, with a large ridge in place over the east Atlantic and west Europe, the "hybrid" low is gradually feeling the influence over the broad trough and is starting to become sheared. I think it's window has pretty much closed.

It is on the tail end of this same trough where the other invest has been, but the convection is very much cyclical and is in a region of decent shear. There may be some weak baroclinic development along the trough with a weak low moving north & east with time, but tropical - or even hybrid - development is pretty unlikely. Last QuikSCAT pass showed a weak circulation in the eastern Caribbean and there is some convection, but it's sheared and isn't organized. There's some pretty cold (relatively speaking, of course) air behind the trough as well, as evidenced by the alto- and stratocumulus over the western Atlantic; the temperature gradient along the trough is likely enhancing convection, but isn't conducive to any development.

But, all of these interesting "hybrid" storms raises an interesting point -- what is, or should be, the operational definition of a subtropical cyclone? To me, it seems like it has been somewhat ambiguous this year, particularly since we cannot fly recon out to these storms to accurately gauge their structure and the funding isn't there (yet) to use the remotely-sensed data, such as microwave data, to determine the structure of the storm on a real-time basis. We had Nicole, a subtropical storm, while we also had Matthew, a storm that likely was only classified as a tropical cyclone (as opposed to an extratropical storm) because of recon. Further, there have been about 5 other storms you could theoretically classify as subtropical cyclones, some more impressive than others (and some more impressive and longer-lasting than some of our existing storms), that were not.

The recent decision to include subtropical cyclones in the storm record -- and the subsequent increased analysis for these storms, in terms of operational attention focused to what is out there -- and the rather, well, discontinuous system of classifying them is skewing the climatological record for the Atlantic basin. Furthermore, I don't feel that there is an accurate or concrete enough definition of what one of these storms is to justify including them with the tropical season climatology. It seems that the definition of what a subtropical cyclone is has been "not extratropical but not tropical." That implies a warm-core system with a large radius of maximum winds, or a cold-core system with a small radius of maximum winds, or an occluded-looking low with some convection near the center, but what is the *actual* definition of these storms?

I'd like to get everyone's thoughts on the issue, since it seems to be somewhat the hot topic in the Atlantic over the past couple of months. Obviously, the field deserves much more research and analysis. But, given that there is little such work currently ongoing, should we classify these storms within the Atlantic season climatology, or should we classify them separately (i.e. "Subtropical Storm 1") as before? Further, what about systems in the Pacific & other basins -- the WPac sees a couple of similar systems each year, while the Indian Ocean has numerous "monsoon depressions" each year that affect the coastline during the season but are not true tropical cyclones. Where do you draw the line? To me, it should be consistant throughout the world, but that's just my opinion.

With the loss of life these systems can bring -- see the May Haiti storm -- it is obvious that some attention should be paid to these systems. But do they deserve to become a part of the tropical cyclone climatology as named storms? My personal belief is no, at least not until we can better quantify what these storms truly are -- are they closer to extratropical than tropical, etc. -- but that there should be some classification scheme nonetheless, one that is applied consistantly with at least a rough operational definition. But, I'd like to get everyone's thoughts, as I mentioned before, on the topic...

Here's hoping the season is over...

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Winding Down - Almost Ed DunhamAdministrator Thu Nov 11 2004 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Bloodstar   Tue Nov 23 2004 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Keith234   Tue Nov 23 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Bloodstar   Fri Nov 26 2004 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Possible Hold The Phone... Storm Cooper   Fri Nov 26 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Possible Hold The Phone... Keith234   Fri Nov 26 2004 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Possible Hold The Phone... Storm Cooper   Fri Nov 26 2004 11:54 PM
. * * 'nother hybrid HanKFranK   Sat Nov 27 2004 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost MikeCAdministrator   Thu Nov 25 2004 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Ricreig   Thu Nov 25 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Storm Cooper   Thu Nov 25 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost Heather   Thu Nov 25 2004 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Winding Down - Almost LI Phil   Thu Nov 25 2004 11:56 AM
. * * "N"Otto LI Phil   Wed Nov 10 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: "N"Otto Rabbit   Wed Nov 10 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: "N"Otto James88   Wed Nov 10 2004 01:20 PM
. * * Re: "N"Otto Bloodstar   Wed Nov 10 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: "N"Otto James88   Wed Nov 10 2004 01:50 PM
. * * interesting sat to see bobbi   Wed Nov 10 2004 02:14 PM
. * * 91L LI Phil   Wed Nov 10 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: 91L Keith234   Wed Nov 10 2004 07:20 PM
. * * 91L & 92L LI Phil   Thu Nov 11 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Rabbit   Thu Nov 11 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L James88   Thu Nov 11 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L LI Phil   Thu Nov 11 2004 06:02 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Clark   Thu Nov 11 2004 11:59 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Keith234   Fri Nov 12 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Spike   Sat Nov 13 2004 05:58 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Keith234   Sat Nov 13 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Spike   Sat Nov 13 2004 06:15 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L LI Phil   Sat Nov 13 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Ice Age Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Nov 16 2004 09:11 PM
. * * gaston redesignated HanKFranK   Wed Nov 17 2004 06:49 PM
. * * Re: gaston redesignated LI Phil   Wed Nov 17 2004 07:29 PM
. * * season's end Rabbit   Thu Nov 18 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: season's end Ricreig   Fri Nov 19 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: season's end danielwAdministrator   Fri Nov 19 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: season's end Ricreig   Sat Nov 20 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Re: season's end LI Phil   Sat Nov 20 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: season's end Keith234   Sat Nov 20 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: season's end LI Phil   Sat Nov 20 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: season's end 52255225   Thu Nov 18 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Spike   Sun Nov 14 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L LI Phil   Fri Nov 12 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L Spike   Fri Nov 12 2004 07:14 AM
. * * thats some concentrated color down there.. bobbi   Fri Nov 12 2004 10:28 AM
. * * Re: 91L & 92L MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 12 2004 09:01 AM

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