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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 270 (Idalia) , Major: 270 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 270 (Idalia) Major: 270 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 1710

Re: What's this????
Mon Feb 07 2005 11:02 PM

It's a deep layer low (i.e. pretty much extending through the depth of the troposphere) that has been sitting and spinning for awhile now. Definitely not anything tropical or subtropical, though -- check out the frontal band to the east and you'll see an extratropical system. Cyclone phase analyses show a developing cold core system as it moves off to the north and east with time; could be a player for England in a few days if the current pattern ever shifts.

Interesting to note -- the system that was near Bermuda last week (this might be the same one; I've been off forecasting for Barrow, AK and Buenos Aires, Argentina this weekend so I'm not sure) had a shallow warm-core for a period of time last week. The wind field never contracted, however, and the convective pattern was never indicative of anything near subtropical structure -- so that goes to show you that yes, there can be (and often are) warm-core extratropical cyclones....in fact, some of the strongest extratropical systems tend to grow during a warm-core phase in their lifetime. But I digress.

SSTs have a long ways to go before we really need to be peeking that way....though with a subtropical storm in April 2003 and a South Atlantic storm in March 2004, why not something again in February 2005? Anything can happen, but I'm going to say pretty confidently that we won't see a storm this month.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	MikeC	Mon Feb 07 2005 11:02 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Clark	Sat Jan 22 2005 06:59 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	doug	Fri Jan 28 2005 07:52 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Steve	Sat Jan 29 2005 06:37 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Luis Martinez	Sat Jan 29 2005 12:40 PM
Re: This Should Be Cool	Storm Cooper	Thu Jan 27 2005 01:33 AM
Just a Note	Ed Dunham	Sat Jan 15 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Just a Note	Ed Dunham	Sun Jan 30 2005 01:11 AM
Re: Just a Note	Lysis	Tue Feb 01 2005 02:26 AM
Re: Just a Note	LI Phil	Tue Feb 01 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Just a Note	Lysis	Tue Feb 01 2005 02:15 PM
Re: Just a Note	LI Phil	Tue Feb 01 2005 04:32 PM
Re: Just a Note	Lysis	Tue Feb 01 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Just a Note	LI Phil	Wed Feb 02 2005 12:40 AM
Re: STS developing in Eastlant	MapMaster	Wed Feb 02 2005 03:25 PM
Re: STS developing in Eastlant	LadyStorm	Thu Feb 03 2005 11:03 AM
Re: STS developing in Eastlant	Lysis	Thu Feb 03 2005 02:43 PM
No STS Developing	Jamiewx	Fri Feb 04 2005 02:43 AM
Re: No STS Developing	Lysis	Fri Feb 04 2005 04:13 AM
Re: No STS Developing	HanKFranK	Fri Feb 04 2005 05:33 AM
Re: No STS Developing	Matthurricane	Mon Feb 07 2005 02:34 AM
Administrative Notes	Ed Dunham	Wed Feb 16 2005 12:35 PM
satelite blues	HanKFranK	Wed Feb 16 2005 08:17 PM
Re: satelite blues	Cocoa Beach	Thu Feb 17 2005 01:28 PM
Re: satelite blues	James88	Fri Feb 18 2005 09:24 AM
Re: satelite blues	Lysis	Sat Feb 19 2005 10:53 PM
Hello to all	Kevin	Sun Feb 20 2005 05:13 AM
Re: Hello to all	ticka1	Mon Feb 21 2005 12:01 AM
Take a look....	MapMaster	Tue Feb 22 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Take a look....	MapMaster	Tue Feb 22 2005 11:12 PM
Re: satellite blues	Ed Dunham	Thu Feb 17 2005 12:06 AM
Re: No STS Developing	Lysis	Fri Feb 04 2005 03:47 PM
What's this????	Cocoa Beach	Mon Feb 07 2005 04:32 PM
Re: What's this????	Clark	Mon Feb 07 2005 11:02 PM
Question for you-all	Cocoa Beach	Thu Feb 10 2005 07:30 PM
Re: Question for you-all	Clark	Tue Feb 15 2005 01:40 AM
Re: Agree with Clark	Map Master	Tue Feb 22 2005 11:16 PM
ENSO/SOI	HanKFranK	Fri Feb 25 2005 07:15 AM
Re: ENSO/SOI	LONNY307	Sun Feb 27 2005 05:28 PM
Re: ENSO/SOI	Rich B	Mon Feb 28 2005 10:44 AM
El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected	Jamiewx	Sat Mar 05 2005 04:08 PM
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected	Heather	Sat Mar 05 2005 06:50 PM
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected	Kevin	Sun Mar 06 2005 02:49 PM
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected	LONNY307	Fri Mar 18 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Question for you-all	Keith234	Thu Feb 10 2005 08:52 PM
News story regarding Bermuda High	Jamiewx	Sat Feb 12 2005 03:03 PM
Re: News story regarding Bermuda High	Keith234	Sun Feb 13 2005 03:18 AM
Hurricane Alley's Forecast	Jamiewx	Sun Feb 13 2005 03:51 AM
Re: What's this????	Lysis	Mon Feb 07 2005 11:12 PM
Re: What's this????	LI Phil	Tue Feb 08 2005 01:04 AM
Re: What's this????	Lysis	Wed Feb 09 2005 07:03 PM
Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook of Headlines	recmod	Thu Feb 10 2005 06:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Season 2004 Scrapbook of Headlines	Ricreig	Mon Feb 14 2005 02:25 PM
Hurricane Charley 6 Months Later Website Photos	recmod	Tue Feb 15 2005 03:00 AM
Re: Hurricane Charley 6 Months Later Website Photos	Ricreig	Tue Feb 15 2005 05:45 PM
Presistant area of sheared convection 27N 48W	Bloodstar	Wed Jan 05 2005 02:02 AM
Another link to add to our collections	Jamiewx	Fri Jan 07 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	Jeffery McELroy	Mon Jan 10 2005 11:06 PM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	hurricanemagnet	Tue Jan 11 2005 02:12 AM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	Storm Cooper	Tue Jan 11 2005 03:32 AM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	danielw	Tue Jan 11 2005 10:43 AM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	LI Phil	Tue Jan 11 2005 03:19 PM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	Jeffery McELroy	Tue Jan 11 2005 07:05 PM
Re: Another link to add to our collections	danielw	Wed Jan 12 2005 10:15 AM
NHC Track Forecasts	danielw	Wed Jan 12 2005 10:34 AM
Re: NHC Track Forecasts	javlin	Thu Jan 13 2005 04:23 AM
thrill commentary	HanKFranK	Thu Jan 13 2005 04:51 AM
Re: Ivan up I-65	javlin	Thu Jan 13 2005 10:52 PM
Caribbean blob	MapMaster	Thu Jan 13 2005 11:01 PM
Off topic discussions (not storm specific)	SkeetoBite	Wed Jan 12 2005 12:46 AM
Re: Off topic discussions (not storm specific)	Storm Cooper	Wed Jan 12 2005 01:21 AM
Objectionable Posts	LI Phil	Tue Jan 11 2005 08:57 PM
Happy Birthday	LI Phil	Tue Jan 11 2005 09:37 PM
Re: Happy Birthday	Christine H	Wed Jan 12 2005 08:47 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	SkeetoBite	Sun Jan 02 2005 09:48 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	LI Phil	Mon Jan 03 2005 02:37 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Storm Cooper	Mon Jan 03 2005 03:31 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Keith(234)	Mon Jan 03 2005 07:38 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Storm Cooper	Tue Jan 04 2005 03:03 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	HanKFranK	Tue Jan 04 2005 03:58 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	LadyStorm	Sun Jan 02 2005 11:42 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Keith234	Sun Jan 02 2005 05:23 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	James88	Sun Jan 02 2005 06:37 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Ricreig	Tue Jan 04 2005 04:12 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	James88	Tue Jan 04 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	LadyStorm	Mon Jan 03 2005 11:33 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Keith234	Sun Jan 02 2005 11:25 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	DMFischer	Sat Jan 01 2005 07:16 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	HanKFranK	Sat Jan 01 2005 05:14 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	LI Phil	Sat Jan 01 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Keith234	Sat Jan 01 2005 05:56 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	James88	Sat Jan 01 2005 05:28 PM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Christine H	Sat Jan 01 2005 06:00 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	danielw	Sat Jan 01 2005 03:19 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season	Storm Cooper	Sat Jan 01 2005 04:18 AM

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