F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: To Be or Not To Be?
      Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

Current conditions show SW sheer inhibiting any rapid intensification of the carribean system. No LLC found by recon means no watches for Jamaica but will be informed on TS winds that will affect the island late tonight thru Thurs. Currently there is a weak LLC near 15.8N and 75.8W moving just north of west at 280' at 18 mph. Due to the moderate sheer, rapid speed, and weak low pressure in the system it can not intensify quickly. Alot of heavy showers are off to the east and northeast of the center. This will continue to spread over the Haiti area and Jamaica tonight.
For Track and intensity I will say there is a weak LLC and it will begin to slow just a bit and move to the NW later tonight into Tues. The system should be namedlater when the NEXT recon goes in or when ship and buoy reports come out of the system with any kind of W wind. Tuesday the sheer will dominish some but will still be there. I dont expect alot of strengthning to a hurricane until later Weds or that night if at all. First we want to close this thing. Track will take this SW of Jamaica by later tuesday and very near the Grand Cayman island early weds. With a upper anticyclone to the NE of the system and lowering heights in the central g-o-m a more turn to the NNW will take shape later Weds night with land fall near 81W early on Thurs and as a posible hurricane then. After about 6-8 hours of crossing the small area of Cuba it should re enter the Fla straits late Thurs or night. The forcast then is for more strengthning and a N motion Thurs night and a slow NNE or NE turn to take shape. Friday - Friday night should be a landfall. The areas of concern are wide spread this far out. Areas from N of Tampa all the way around the state to Miami's SE area could be in direct line. The turn to the NNE or NE is what it all comes down to. Cant make the exact point yet. As for intensity, right now going just under the GFDL with a Cat 2-3. Some sheer might again be felt of the system on Friday ahead of the strong trough and cold front to its NW. So expect LLC to form overnight, TS on Tuesday to move close to G Cayman later on weds to cross w central Cuba very late Weds night or most likely Thurs as strong TS or weak hurricane, move N and threaten Key west early Friday and the SW florida area but very wide area indeed later that day. Tampa-Miami. Nogaps is best model for this and GFS. Avn is next. Ill post more later in detail on Tues if and when this devolps. scottsvb

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* To Be or Not To Be? CFHCAdministrator Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:58 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:55 PM
. * * Not YET Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:58 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:51 PM
. * * td 10/11 HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:00 PM
. * * Re: td 10/11 Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:12 PM
. * * Re: td 10/11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
. * * Re: td 10/11 Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:19 PM
. * * Td 10 Kevin   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? andy1tom   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:44 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Rich B   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:46 PM
. * * TD# 11 Discussion Mike   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:52 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:56 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? medic8ed   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:10 PM
. * * WHERE IT GOES?? WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:16 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:05 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:54 PM
. * * no telling HanKFranK   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
. * * Re: no telling troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
. * * Re: no telling Domino1   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
. * * Re: no telling Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Direct TV Domino1   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:35 AM
. * * recon HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:48 AM
. * * Re: recon doug   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:33 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
. * * Re: recon garyb   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:44 AM
. * * Re: recon Mike   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
. * * Re: recon Marktropic   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:48 AM
. * * Movine west? Southern4sure   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Movine west? Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Movine west? Mike   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Movine west? Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:19 AM
. * * Re: recon garyb   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 AM
. * * Re: recon Mike   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:42 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:40 AM
. * * TD Ten is back! Rich B   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:45 AM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! garyb   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:49 AM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
. * * getting ready to explode Rick in Mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:21 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode John C   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: getting ready to explode Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:05 PM
. * * May I present.... Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:58 PM
. * * Re: May I present.... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:04 PM
. * * Re: May I present.... Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:07 PM
. * * transgendered systems HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:43 PM
. * * Re: transgendered systems Rich B   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
. * * TD#11 at 5 PM Cycloneye   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:49 PM
. * * How rude. Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:09 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:06 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:57 PM
. * * games HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Re: games Hurric   Tue Sep 17 2002 02:20 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! scottsvb   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:10 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Rich B   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:17 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! andy1tom   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:39 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:33 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:10 PM
. * * 33/52 HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:18 PM
. * * On Track? scottsvb   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
. * * Re: On Track? Marktropic   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:20 PM
. * * track HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
. * * Re: track Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Td 10 (future Isidore) track Kevin   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track brew   Tue Sep 17 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Kevin clyde w   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:19 PM
. * * Tallahassee Bill Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:51 PM
. * * Re: track Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:45 PM
. * * 11 noname Alan   Tue Sep 17 2002 03:39 PM
. * * Re: On Track? Marktropic   Tue Sep 17 2002 01:37 PM
. * * Re: 33/52 Mary   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
. * * Re: 33/52 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 12:47 PM
. * * Re: TD Ten is back! Rich B   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:47 AM
. * * Why Not A Test ? garyb   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Why Not A Test ? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:48 PM
. * * No Storm Yet garyb   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
. * * Re: recon clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 AM
. * * Re: recon RBL   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
. * * Re: recon Rick in Mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
. * * Isadore?? clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 AM
. * * Re: recon Rasvar   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:09 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:23 AM
. * * bingo *DELETED* HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:35 AM
. * * what the.. HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:36 AM
. * * 32/52 HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 AM
. * * bingo HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:33 AM
. * * Re: recon Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:50 AM
. * * Re: recon Domino   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:50 AM
. * * Re: recon 57497479   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:26 AM
. * * Re: recon BabyCat   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:36 AM
. * * Re: no telling troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:52 PM
. * * Re: no telling Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: no telling troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:44 PM
. * * Re: no telling StormHound   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
. * * Re: no telling RBL   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:53 PM
. * * Re: no telling troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
. * * Re: no telling StormHound   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
. * * getting fun, ain't it? Rick in Mobile   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
. * * Re: getting fun, ain't it? 57497479   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:16 PM
. * * LLCC? StormHound   Mon Sep 16 2002 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact? JustinMiami   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:57 PM
. * * Re: no telling Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 10:18 PM
. * * Re: no telling Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:31 PM
. * * TD 10???? WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
. * * Re: no telling Anonymousnickd   Mon Sep 16 2002 09:21 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:26 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Mark Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Mark Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:27 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Anonymous   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:54 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? ShawnS   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:11 PM
. * * an early good night Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:57 PM
. * * Re: an early good night Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:04 PM
. * * Re: an early good night Bruce   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:14 PM
. * * Re: an early good night Anonymousnickd   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:29 PM
. * * Re: an early good night Joe   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:34 PM
. * * discussion... Anonymousnickd   Mon Sep 16 2002 08:32 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? troy2   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:48 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Cycloneye   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? scottsvb   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Robert   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:18 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? Kevin   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? ShawnS   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:42 PM
. * * Re: To Be or Not To Be? StormHound   Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 181 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 20878

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center