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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

Re: To Be or Not To Be?
Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM

My thinking is that the Bahamas may feel very little effect from this system. I'm still thinking it should keep moving towards the wnw at 10-15 mph for at least the next 36h.

Analog storms: I've picked out some storms that seem to be at least somewhat similar to this one. Although some formed in different places, I believe with one of the storms the outcome may be the same as with this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricaen/atlantic/1944/11/track.gif
This track looks like the most similar to this storm at this time. This storm was never a quick mover and effected western Cuba as a hurricane but then weakened as it went over. When it emerged over water, it was moving slowly but it re-intensified into a category 3 hurricane. Looks quite similar to this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1953/FLORENCE/track.gif
This one formed in a similar place to the 1944 storm but tracked further west. This has a much lower chance of being similar to our current storm than the 1944 one does. The trough that should effect this system looks to be very sharp. Shouldn't allow this one to get up to the Florida Panhandle.

Of course, there could be some variations in intensity. Another thing I wanted to point out: It seems whenever we have a tropical wave producing tropical storm forced winds but with no closed circulation we eventually see development. It also seems that these storms don't tend to stop developing when they hit land. With Erin in 1995, it was a rainmaker for the Florida Peninsula but when it hit the Florida Panhandle wind damage was far greater than with Erin's first hit. Wil this storm be the same way? Rainfall a main threat in Cuba with wind being the main threat in Florida. Time will tell.

Also, in years similar to this one where activity is pushed closer to the US and more numerous in the GOMEX it seems Florida always get a cat.2 or cat.3 from the south. Just a trend I noticed from some years.

Kevin

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:10 AM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:16 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 AM
no telling	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:11 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:57 AM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:50 PM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:50 PM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:48 PM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:04 PM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:49 PM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:19 PM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:56 PM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:02 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:42 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:40 PM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:45 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:47 PM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:34 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:33 PM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:27 PM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:34 PM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 PM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:09 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:52 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:54 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:44 AM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:54 AM
Re: no telling	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:53 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:32 AM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:35 AM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 AM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:16 AM
LLCC?	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:22 AM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:57 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:18 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:31 AM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:21 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:26 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:21 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:20 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:12 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:20 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:12 AM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:21 AM
Re: Mark	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:27 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 AM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:04 AM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:14 AM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:29 AM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:34 AM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM

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