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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

Re: To Be or Not To Be?
Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM

My thinking is that the Bahamas may feel very little effect from this system. I'm still thinking it should keep moving towards the wnw at 10-15 mph for at least the next 36h.

Analog storms: I've picked out some storms that seem to be at least somewhat similar to this one. Although some formed in different places, I believe with one of the storms the outcome may be the same as with this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricaen/atlantic/1944/11/track.gif
This track looks like the most similar to this storm at this time. This storm was never a quick mover and effected western Cuba as a hurricane but then weakened as it went over. When it emerged over water, it was moving slowly but it re-intensified into a category 3 hurricane. Looks quite similar to this one.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1953/FLORENCE/track.gif
This one formed in a similar place to the 1944 storm but tracked further west. This has a much lower chance of being similar to our current storm than the 1944 one does. The trough that should effect this system looks to be very sharp. Shouldn't allow this one to get up to the Florida Panhandle.

Of course, there could be some variations in intensity. Another thing I wanted to point out: It seems whenever we have a tropical wave producing tropical storm forced winds but with no closed circulation we eventually see development. It also seems that these storms don't tend to stop developing when they hit land. With Erin in 1995, it was a rainmaker for the Florida Peninsula but when it hit the Florida Panhandle wind damage was far greater than with Erin's first hit. Wil this storm be the same way? Rainfall a main threat in Cuba with wind being the main threat in Florida. Time will tell.

Also, in years similar to this one where activity is pushed closer to the US and more numerous in the GOMEX it seems Florida always get a cat.2 or cat.3 from the south. Just a trend I noticed from some years.

Kevin

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:56 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:10 PM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:16 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:05 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:54 PM
no telling	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:44 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:48 AM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:04 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:47 AM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:19 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:42 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:40 AM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:45 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:49 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:47 AM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:39 AM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 AM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:09 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:52 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:44 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	RBL	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:53 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:16 PM
LLCC?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:22 PM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:57 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:18 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:31 PM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:26 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: Mark	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:27 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:11 PM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:04 PM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:14 PM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:29 PM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:34 PM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

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