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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release
      Sat Mar 26 2005 07:49 AM

That's an interesting topic to take a look at -- I haven't heard of that one before.

Tornadoes tend to form in relatively warm environments in the presence of abundant moisture and heating at the surface, with relatively cool mid-levels of the atmosphere. This provides the thermodynamic energy for the formation of the tornadoes; many other dynamical processes serve to initiate convection, form the preceding horizontal vortex, tilt it into the vertical, and lead to tornado formation, notably wind shear.

But, the thermodynamic parameters are the important ones here -- not only as they can lead to tornado/storm formation but are less likely to change on a day-to-day basis as are the dynamical parameters. Thus, a similar regime is likely to hold through, oh, a week or two -- whereas the dynamical parameters are tied to many other transient features (e.g. surface cyclone development, upper-level conditions, and more).

What do we know about hurricanes? We know that they need warm water to form, particularly not just at the surface but also below the surface. This warm water pools as a result of increased heating over a region, but takes take as waters warm/cool much slower than does land (due in part to the specific heat capacity of water vs. land). Of course, there are many other factors -- low vertical wind shear, sufficient low-level spin to result in vortex/convective development, and so on -- but again, these are more dynamical than thermodynamical.

Most tornadoes/convective systems across the southeast U.S. (mainly central Texas & points east) receive their moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, with heating serving to continually warm these waters through time. So, without doing any study, it seems as though early-season tornado activity in the S.E. U.S. could be a good indicator of tropical activity across the western Atlantic -- particularly the Gulf -- at least early in the season. Of course, like in 2004 as opposed to a lot of other years, this may not be terribly well-correlated to hurricane activity in that basin. I don't think that *all* tornadoes are going to be a good indicator of activity, just those in the southeast U.S.; I also think that while tornadoes are a good parameter (and simple to use), observed severe thunderstorms may be a better indicator, since the basic conditions for formation are the same between the two and using the latter does not require as much dynamical response, making it likely more representative of what we are looking for here.

Hope this wasn't above everyone's heads...comments anyone?

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Not Much Change Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Mar 26 2005 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Cycloneye11   Mon Mar 21 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change LI Phil   Tue Mar 22 2005 03:42 AM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Cycloneye11   Tue Mar 22 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release danielwAdministrator   Wed Mar 23 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Beaujolais   Wed Mar 23 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Lysis   Wed Mar 23 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release MikeCAdministrator   Wed Mar 23 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release MoparMitch   Fri Mar 25 2005 02:57 PM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Clark   Sat Mar 26 2005 07:49 AM
. * * Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release Storm Cooper   Sat Mar 26 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Dr Gray speaks Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Sat Mar 26 2005 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Vero Beach   Thu Apr 14 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Thu Apr 14 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Circulation off NC Coast Cycloneye11   Thu Apr 14 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast James88   Thu Apr 14 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast HanKFranK   Thu Apr 14 2005 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast Lysis   Thu Apr 14 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Circulation off NC Coast B.C.Francis   Thu Apr 14 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks danielwAdministrator   Sun Mar 27 2005 05:15 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 27 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks javlin   Thu Mar 31 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Thu Mar 31 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Lysis   Fri Apr 01 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks HanKFranK   Fri Apr 01 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Heather   Fri Apr 01 2005 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Clark   Sun Apr 03 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks HanKFranK   Sun Apr 03 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks B.C.Francis   Fri Apr 01 2005 02:02 PM
. * * Circulation in NW carib MapMaster   Sat Apr 02 2005 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib east coast   Thu Apr 14 2005 05:19 AM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib B.C.Francis   Sat Apr 02 2005 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib Lysis   Sat Apr 02 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Circulation in NW carib B.C.Francis   Sat Apr 02 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Dr Gray speaks Cycloneye11   Sun Mar 27 2005 12:03 PM
. * * Re:SST's 3.4 Nino javlin   Fri Mar 18 2005 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Steve hirsch.   Thu Mar 17 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change javlin   Fri Mar 18 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Off S. America MapMaster   Thu Mar 17 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Off S. America Beaujolais   Thu Mar 17 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Disturbance MapMaster   Thu Mar 10 2005 05:00 PM
. * * Re: EPAC Disturbance LI Phil   Sun Mar 13 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Not Much Change Storm Cooper   Thu Mar 10 2005 01:18 AM

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