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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: visuals
      Sun Apr 03 2005 12:36 AM

HF - NHC uses 1 minute averaged winds for their maximum wind reports. The JTWC uses 10 minute averaged winds for theirs out in the WPacific; that makes some of those storms even more impressive. Most other agencies use 2, 5, or 10 minute averages.

I think some of the reason why the NHC didn't change the track maps, beyond the education issue noted in another thread, is that none of their proposed alternatives were all that appealing. They simply don't provide the information that is necessary if a change is going to be made to the graphic. GIS technology is getting advanced enough -- think Skeetobite's work -- to the point that the NHC should strongly consider using it in their applications. The NWS is testing it out with radar imagery, with impressive results. Maybe in future years we'll see a movement towards that, but the proposed alternatives weren't very good (at least IMO) this time around.

Regarding damage & wind speeds with Charley -- there is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to estimating intensity with regards to damage observations. Mesoscale (small scale) features are going to result in wide variations in damage over small areas, especially in a storm the size of Charley. Tornado intensities are only measured by the amount of damage they cause; if a strong tornado touched down and didn't hit anything, it may only be rated an F0 or F1 when, in fact, it was much stronger. Similarly, something of F2 intensity that levels everything in its path may be rated an F3 by one observer and an F4 by another.

While the damage estimators are trained in the field, it is really a very subjective process; two people can come up with vastly different estimates and still not be right. Trying to use these estimates when looking at hurricane damage is going to result in the same uncertainty. Thus, I feel it's better to take the "truth" observations from what instruments were available as the closest thing to being accurate, all while keeping the caveat in there that the true intensity of the storm may not have been accurately sampled by the available tools.

With a storm of Charley's size, the mathematics show a very rapid drop off in intensity as you move away from the center of a storm; just barely missing the strongest winds may result in you receiving winds 10-15mph less than the maximum observed. Regarding gusts within a storm -- while the nature of a tropical cyclone tends to supress convective downbursts, once the storm has moved on land, this tendency erodes (due to friction and a lack of moist inflow), allowing for the strongest winds associated with the storm (found about 1km up at the top of the boundary layer) to be transferred to the surface as gusts within downdrafts. Slightly stronger gusts may be found a bit further inland from the coast as this tendency erodes; a 170mph gust is not out of the question for a storm of Charley's intensity a few miles inland.

I don't think anyone's really off base here, just that there's a lot of uncertainty in taking video observations to assess wind speeds with a storm.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis Sun Apr 03 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) ChuckS   Tue Apr 04 2006 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) flhurricanedude   Wed Aug 24 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 26 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) nccathy   Wed Jul 27 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 27 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Clark   Wed Jul 27 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) nccathy   Wed Jul 27 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Clark   Wed Jul 27 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) nccathy   Thu Jul 28 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Wed Jul 27 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) lax   Wed Jul 27 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) laxpimp   Wed Jul 27 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) TAZMAN   Thu Jul 28 2005 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) laxpimp   Wed Jul 27 2005 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Clark   Wed Jul 27 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) laxpimp   Wed Jul 27 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) sullynole   Thu Jul 28 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) laxpimpj   Thu Jul 28 2005 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Jamiewx   Thu Jul 28 2005 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) laxpimp   Thu Jul 28 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) lcdrbill3   Sat Jul 30 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Sat Jul 30 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) lcdrbill3   Sat Jul 30 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Sat Jul 30 2005 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) lcdrbill3   Sat Jul 30 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) yecatsjg   Sat Jul 30 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Fri Aug 12 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Sat Aug 13 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MissBecky   Fri Aug 19 2005 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Ryan   Fri Aug 19 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) nccathy   Fri Jul 29 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) TAZMAN   Fri Jul 29 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) TAZMAN   Fri Jul 29 2005 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) TAZMAN   Wed Jul 27 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Prospero   Sun Jun 19 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 19 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) markieb   Wed Jul 06 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Prospero   Sun Jun 19 2005 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Sun Jun 19 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) adogg76   Wed Jul 06 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 07 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) markieb   Tue Jul 26 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) sullynole   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Wed Jul 06 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) adogg76   Thu Jul 07 2005 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MikeCAdministrator   Wed Mar 23 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Wed Mar 23 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) HanKFranK   Wed Mar 23 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) HanKFranK   Wed Mar 23 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) Lysis   Wed Mar 23 2005 08:29 PM
. * * visuals HanKFranK   Thu Mar 24 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Thu Mar 24 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sat Mar 26 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 09:01 AM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sat Mar 26 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sat Mar 26 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sat Mar 26 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sun Mar 27 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: visuals HanKFranK   Sun Mar 27 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: visuals ~Floydbuster   Sun Mar 27 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: visuals HanKFranK   Sun Mar 27 2005 01:13 PM
. * * Re: visuals Clark   Sun Apr 03 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Mon Apr 04 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: visuals danielwAdministrator   Sun Mar 27 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: visuals SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Mar 26 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: visuals SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Mar 26 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Re: visuals Lysis   Sat Mar 26 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: visuals LI Phil   Sat Mar 26 2005 10:29 PM
. * * Re: visuals Katie   Mon Mar 28 2005 09:27 PM
. * * HanKFranK Lysis   Tue Mar 29 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: HanKFranK Lysis   Fri Apr 01 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: HanKFranK ~Floydbuster   Wed Apr 06 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: HanKFranK Lysis   Wed Apr 06 2005 04:10 PM
. * * Re: HanKFranK Lysis   Wed Apr 13 2005 05:31 PM
. * * videos/quadrants/crashes HanKFranK   Wed Apr 13 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: videos/quadrants/crashes Lysis   Thu Apr 14 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: HanKFranK hurricane_run   Sat Apr 02 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: visuals danielwAdministrator   Sun Mar 27 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Charley Movie Download (must see) MikeCAdministrator   Wed Mar 23 2005 07:42 PM

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