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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

no telling
Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM

been obvious all afternoon that an llc ran out ahead of the main convective mass. that thing is toast, running out there alone. if there is a secondary center forming in the convection.. thats the real deal. if it forms in the mid levels, also dont have to worry about it running away with the low level westerly flow.. you get a deeper system.
anyway no way to tell for sure, but with that kind of very deep convection firing and re-firing south of haiti youve got to think something cyclonic is trying to get going.
we'll know for sure if it starts getting a less amorphous signature and T numbers start going up. unless the sun rises first.
by the way, the fact that the convection hasnt moved has allowed it to distance itself from the upper trough ahead somewhat.. it IS in ideal development shape now. this is obvious by the outflow cirrus shield extending away from the convective mass in all direction.
got EVERYTHING it needs for sure, except an llc.
by the way for future track.. synoptic pattern favors it to track wnw originally, then turning nw and north with time. whether it turns up in the bahamas or in the yucatan channel will make all the difference.
if this thing develops, it will not be a sissy storm, by the way. put a low level center with convective feedback in that environment for two or three days and youve got a major hurricane.
better hope it goes goofy and cant organize.. if it does somebody gets whacked.
HF 0104z17september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:56 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:10 PM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:16 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:05 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:54 PM
no telling	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:44 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:48 AM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:04 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:47 AM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:19 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:42 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:40 AM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:45 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:49 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:47 AM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:39 AM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 AM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:09 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:52 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:44 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	RBL	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:53 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:16 PM
LLCC?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:22 PM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:57 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:18 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:31 PM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:26 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: Mark	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:27 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:11 PM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:04 PM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:14 PM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:29 PM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:34 PM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

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