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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

HanKFranK
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Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

no telling
Tue Sep 17 2002 01:11 AM

been obvious all afternoon that an llc ran out ahead of the main convective mass. that thing is toast, running out there alone. if there is a secondary center forming in the convection.. thats the real deal. if it forms in the mid levels, also dont have to worry about it running away with the low level westerly flow.. you get a deeper system.
anyway no way to tell for sure, but with that kind of very deep convection firing and re-firing south of haiti youve got to think something cyclonic is trying to get going.
we'll know for sure if it starts getting a less amorphous signature and T numbers start going up. unless the sun rises first.
by the way, the fact that the convection hasnt moved has allowed it to distance itself from the upper trough ahead somewhat.. it IS in ideal development shape now. this is obvious by the outflow cirrus shield extending away from the convective mass in all direction.
got EVERYTHING it needs for sure, except an llc.
by the way for future track.. synoptic pattern favors it to track wnw originally, then turning nw and north with time. whether it turns up in the bahamas or in the yucatan channel will make all the difference.
if this thing develops, it will not be a sissy storm, by the way. put a low level center with convective feedback in that environment for two or three days and youve got a major hurricane.
better hope it goes goofy and cant organize.. if it does somebody gets whacked.
HF 0104z17september

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:11 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:10 AM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:16 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 AM
no telling	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:11 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:57 AM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:50 PM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:50 PM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:48 PM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:04 PM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:49 PM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:19 PM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:56 PM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:02 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:42 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:40 PM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:45 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:47 PM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:34 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:33 PM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:27 PM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:34 PM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 PM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:09 PM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:52 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:54 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:44 AM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:54 AM
Re: no telling	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:53 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:32 AM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:35 AM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 AM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:16 AM
LLCC?	StormHound	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:22 AM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:57 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:18 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:31 AM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:21 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:26 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:21 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:20 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:12 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:20 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:12 AM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:21 AM
Re: Mark	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:27 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:11 AM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:04 AM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:14 AM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:29 AM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:34 AM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM

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