The models are coming into a bit better alignment as to what may happen in the SW Caribbean today. Shear is trying to relax over the region, but it's still pretty high north of 10 N. The models continue to build a ridge over the region in about 2 days from the EPac, partially a response to the subtropical jet moving ever-so-slightly northward and partially a response to a weakening of its southern periphery; this is absolutely critical for us to see anything of interest in the Caribbean this week...at least tropical.
The models have also come into better alignment as to the thermodynamic structure of a system, were it to develop. Both the GFS and the Air Force MM5 call for a warm-core structure, the depth of which is still up in the air. This is a gradual trend towards a warm-core structure, meaning if it continues, we could see something forecast to be tropical. SSTs are certainly warm enough up until you cross Cuba, and moisture shouldn't be a problem across the region. The UKMET and NOGAPS also call for some sort of development, but I'd like to see the next (00Z) runs before writing much about them. Our run of the MM5 here from last night hinted at a rather good sized cyclone developing; unfortunately, it only goes out to about 4 days because someone (okay, myself) shut off the computer it was running on before it finished. Whoops; we'll get a new run by morning, however. Anyway, it spun up a rather small circulation off of the Honduran coast with a min. pressure of around 992mb (and something slightly stronger in the EPac, too, to kick off their season). We'll see if that lasts.
Needless to say, this could be our first real "threat" of the year. However, anything that develops -- assuming it does -- will either move slowly onshore in Cent. America and weaken or move across Cuba and into the Atlantic as it gets picked up by the jet & a midlatitude trough. Shouldn't be a threat at all to the US mainland. It's a candidate (assuming it starts out tropical) to undergo extratropical transition at a pretty low latitude, somewhere between 20-25°N. Max. potential intensity (MPI) maps are in the cat. 3 range, which this storm would never achieve, but it still hints that conditions are favorable for something to potentially develop.
I'd say it's got more of a chance now than it did a day ago, but not necessarily a great chance. Convection has persisted in the area, which is a good thing, and you can (and occasionally do) see TCs develop along the end of old boundaries, which is sort of where this lies right now. QuikSCAT isn't going to be much help, as that is traditionally one of the areas where data are lacking. Needless to say...something to watch for those ready for another season.
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