that is some lackluster model support. 91L hasn't changed a whole lot for the last 48 hours. the convection is now all staying east of the broad sfc low/trough centered roughly near 13/80. shear isn't letting up.. the only thing that would compensate for that would be if the low were to start clinging to convection and tightening.. in which case it might finally start moving ene.
in various runs over the past few days, pretty much all of the models are trying to brew up low pressure near cuba to the east and northeast. none of them looks incredibly feasible, but 91L was effectively spotted days ahead by the globals, so i reckon that some manifestation of these disturbances will keep our attention in the tropics for the rest of may. as storm hunter mentioned in the previous post, there's a funny-looking pacific cross-over type disturbance too. soi keeps dipping negative; now that we're getting closer to the season these pulses are finally contributing to backing and low pressure trying to spawn in the deep tropics.
the subtropical jet is also going to start migrating north and weakening over the next couple of weeks, so the inhibiting conditions currently over the basin are going to lose ground.
think it's a fair bet we'll get an active early season.
HF 1702z15may
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