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News Talkback >> 2005 Storm Forum

Bloodstar
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Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ

Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
Tue May 17 2005 09:10 PM

It's not quite pulling numbers out of a hat, but it's close here are my thoughts:
I think the current trend of relatively above average SST's will continue for the summer months. Enhancing any storms that make it to hurricane status.. With neutral conditions otherwise, I think we're going to see the following breakdown:
18 Depressions
14 Tropical Storms and 2 Subtropical Storms (16 total)
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes

Ok now why these numbers?
let's look at the last few years:
Cat 04 03 02 01 00
TS 15 16 13 15 15
HC 09 07 04 09 08

So I'm fully expecting about the same TS/ST development. I'm also expecting anything that gets going will have a generally neutral development but with warm SST's will still be able to ramp up to a minimal hurricane (ergo, the high number of hurricanes projected). I also expect the hurricanes to have enough warm ocean water to reach major hurricane status about half the time. So, it'll be busy, I really expect to see one Subtropical storm at the start of the season and one at the end of the season. That's also symptomatic of both warmer SST's in colder weather, leading to hybrid/transitional systems, as well as better understanding and diagnosis of when a storm is a Subtropical system. My gut is also telling me that 6 Major hurricanes seems high, but Last year there was 5, and it seems viable to have one more.

Take care and I'll be wishcasting for all fishspinners and a lot of fireworks but no damage.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Ed Dunham	Tue May 17 2005 09:10 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Ed Dunham	Sun May 29 2005 10:26 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	B.C.Francis	Mon May 30 2005 05:29 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Rob_M	Mon May 30 2005 11:25 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	HanKFranK	Thu Jul 07 2005 04:07 AM
First Hurricane of the Season	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 07 2005 10:20 PM
Re: First Hurricane of the Season	Keith234	Sat Jul 09 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Terra	Mon May 30 2005 12:01 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	ftlaudbob	Mon May 30 2005 01:49 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Storm Cooper	Sun May 29 2005 11:26 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	sthorne	Wed May 18 2005 01:30 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	LI Phil	Wed May 18 2005 06:07 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Lysis	Wed May 18 2005 09:17 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	FlaMommy	Wed May 18 2005 09:35 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Keith234	Tue May 17 2005 12:13 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	vbhoutex	Fri May 27 2005 08:39 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	LI Phil	Tue May 17 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	FlaMommy	Tue May 17 2005 12:20 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	B.C.Francis	Tue May 17 2005 02:38 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	FlaMommy	Tue May 17 2005 02:42 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	B.C.Francis	Tue May 17 2005 03:01 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	LI Phil	Tue May 17 2005 03:21 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	B.C.Francis	Tue May 17 2005 04:17 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Storm Hunter	Tue May 17 2005 06:46 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 07:04 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Bloodstar	Tue May 17 2005 09:10 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	trinibaje	Tue May 17 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	FlaMommy	Tue May 17 2005 03:24 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	rmbjoe1954	Tue May 17 2005 12:05 AM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Liz	Mon May 16 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Joe	Mon May 16 2005 09:13 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Clark	Sun May 15 2005 09:41 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Doombot!	Sat May 14 2005 06:31 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Storm Hunter	Sun May 15 2005 02:25 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	KN4LF	Fri May 13 2005 06:07 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	HanKFranK	Fri May 13 2005 10:23 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Heather	Fri May 13 2005 10:43 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	DMFischer	Fri May 13 2005 04:54 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	rmbjoe1954	Fri May 13 2005 04:33 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	Cycloneye11	Fri May 13 2005 02:44 PM
Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast	B.C.Francis	Fri May 13 2005 04:21 PM

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