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Tropical Weather Outlooks resume tomorrow, but the Atalntic Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 246 (Nicholas) , Major: 262 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1316 (Michael) Major: 1316 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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Loc: Georgia Tech
Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)
      Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM

From my (untrained) eye, Most models are bringing *something* across into the atlantic. Now mind you, what that something is, is really up in the air. Most of the models have about a 1000mb low kinda meandering over near cuba in 144 hours or so, with the exception being the gfdl which really ramps that sucker up and then ramps it up again.

At the moment track is the key to any threat to the atlantic, a slight northern deviation and the storm spends less time over land, a slight southern deviation could end up destroying all the organization.

As far as the intensity goes, I'd wait to see a model run with a better initalization of the storm than the current model set. But the outflow looks nice, and the storm looks pretty impressive for a tropical depression. particularly with the banding features already starting to fire up, low shear, and very warm water temps. As Clark pointed out above. The storm does have a possibility to get pretty nasty.

IANAM (I am not a meterologist), but I would want to put up hurricane watches along the pacific coast of El salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras by the evening advisory.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 90E Strengthens hurricane_run Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens BloodstarModerator   Tue May 17 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens Storm Hunter   Tue May 17 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens ClarkModerator   Tue May 17 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens Storm Hunter   Tue May 17 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens Storm Hunter   Tue May 17 2005 05:19 PM
. * * Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) BloodstarModerator   Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Keith234   Tue May 17 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Lysis   Tue May 17 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Lysis   Tue May 17 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Keith234   Tue May 17 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Lysis   Tue May 17 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) LI Phil   Tue May 17 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Lysis   Tue May 17 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) B.C.Francis   Wed May 18 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) Cycloneye11   Wed May 18 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) B.C.Francis   Thu May 19 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005 danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005 LadyStorm   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:18 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens rmbjoe1954   Tue May 17 2005 04:23 PM
. * * TD 1-E forms Cycloneye11   Tue May 17 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens LI Phil   Tue May 17 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: 90E Strengthens hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 03:29 PM

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