Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)
Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM
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From my (untrained) eye, Most models are bringing *something* across into the atlantic. Now mind you, what that something is, is really up in the air. Most of the models have about a 1000mb low kinda meandering over near cuba in 144 hours or so, with the exception being the gfdl which really ramps that sucker up and then ramps it up again.
At the moment track is the key to any threat to the atlantic, a slight northern deviation and the storm spends less time over land, a slight southern deviation could end up destroying all the organization.
As far as the intensity goes, I'd wait to see a model run with a better initalization of the storm than the current model set. But the outflow looks nice, and the storm looks pretty impressive for a tropical depression. particularly with the banding features already starting to fire up, low shear, and very warm water temps. As Clark pointed out above. The storm does have a possibility to get pretty nasty.
IANAM (I am not a meterologist), but I would want to put up hurricane watches along the pacific coast of El salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras by the evening advisory.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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