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PACIFIC NOLO FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. FAY FINE FLINGING FINS. 90L NEARS CABO VERDES.

Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 714 (Milton), US Major: 714 (Milton), FL Any: 714 (Milton), FL Major: 714 (Milton)

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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Bloodstar
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Posts: 468
Loc: Tucson, AZ

Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)
Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM

From my (untrained) eye, Most models are bringing *something* across into the atlantic. Now mind you, what that something is, is really up in the air. Most of the models have about a 1000mb low kinda meandering over near cuba in 144 hours or so, with the exception being the gfdl which really ramps that sucker up and then ramps it up again.

At the moment track is the key to any threat to the atlantic, a slight northern deviation and the storm spends less time over land, a slight southern deviation could end up destroying all the organization.

As far as the intensity goes, I'd wait to see a model run with a better initalization of the storm than the current model set. But the outflow looks nice, and the storm looks pretty impressive for a tropical depression. particularly with the banding features already starting to fire up, low shear, and very warm water temps. As Clark pointed out above. The storm does have a possibility to get pretty nasty.

IANAM (I am not a meterologist), but I would want to put up hurricane watches along the pacific coast of El salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras by the evening advisory.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD Student

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	Bloodstar	Tue May 17 2005 03:20 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	Storm Hunter	Tue May 17 2005 03:32 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	Clark	Tue May 17 2005 04:05 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 04:25 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 04:27 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	Storm Hunter	Tue May 17 2005 04:33 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 05:14 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	Storm Hunter	Tue May 17 2005 05:19 PM
Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Bloodstar	Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Keith234	Tue May 17 2005 05:45 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 06:14 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Lysis	Tue May 17 2005 08:05 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 08:29 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Lysis	Tue May 17 2005 08:33 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Keith234	Tue May 17 2005 08:48 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Lysis	Tue May 17 2005 08:58 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	LI Phil	Tue May 17 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Lysis	Tue May 17 2005 09:17 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	B.C.Francis	Wed May 18 2005 09:27 AM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Lysis	Wed May 18 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	Cycloneye11	Wed May 18 2005 06:53 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	B.C.Francis	Thu May 19 2005 12:35 PM
Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005	danielw	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:07 PM
Re: Adrian Update June 1. 2005	LadyStorm	Thu Jun 02 2005 06:18 AM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	LI Phil	Wed May 18 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac)	LI Phil	Wed May 18 2005 05:58 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 04:18 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	rmbjoe1954	Tue May 17 2005 04:23 PM
TD 1-E forms	Cycloneye11	Tue May 17 2005 04:26 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 03:42 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	LI Phil	Tue May 17 2005 03:57 PM
Re: 90E Strengthens	hurricane_run	Tue May 17 2005 03:29 PM

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