thought that system looked healthy last night... based on the outflow signature, and the amount of low level convergence clear in the visibles, i'd agree with some here and say that the nhc intensity forecast is conservative. sure it's going "backwards", but y'all remember lenny... i don't think there's an el salvador landfall i've ever come across in the historic database, so this could be a first if it keeps ene. this thing should become adrian and it may be more than just a borderline ts/hurricane.. something that section of coast doesn't typically see regardless. if the system crosses it will probably be disorganized at the surface and shallower, so the rapid ene movement late in the forecast period may be overdone. if it comes off still as a deep system, yeah, it'll be sheared and racing ene... a shallower system might drift and slowly spin down or build back up slowly if it can find a shear gap. clark mentioned some evolution of features in the mid latitudes that could shelter it or give it a more poleward path, but that's far down the road for a system with little climatology. by the way, if it survives (and the nhc doesn't decide that it has 'reformed') the trek across central america it will still be called adrian.. the nhc changed their convention on that a couple years ago (about the same time they changed the naming convention for subtropical systems). this will also confuse our season numbers from the outset. in my book this will be a pacific system and not count into my atlantic totals.. and they already need all the help they can get. in my book a system counts in the basin it formed in, in the month it formed in.. regardless of where it goes or when it reaches different tiers of intensity. so anyway.. may 19th we get the end of the star wars series and the beginning of guatemala/el salvador hurricanes. i've got a conference to hit with a bunch of met/climo people that evening, so i guess we'll have something to talk about. HF 0111z18may
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