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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)
TS Alberto
ADV#11 10:00 am EDT
22.3N 97.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
W at 13 mph
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NHC/ TPC on top of things!
      Wed May 25 2005 05:12 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005

...WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THE LOW AND TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THROUGH WED UNTIL THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ATLC.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE E PAC WITH LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL BE FAVORED OVER INTERIOR SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

SIMILARLY...ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS LESS WIDESPREAD BUT EXPECT INCREASING ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER JET OVER THE W ATLC STRENGTHENS PRODUCING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 70W...GETS PULLED NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Carriage returns added to the above for emphasis on each area of the discussion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505242312

You have the right ideas checking the Tropical Weather Products from NHC/ TPC first. I'm sure some of the Mets on the board can give actual numbers, but the tropical wave to tropical depression and higher categories ratio is probably close to 1 in 5 or 1 in 8 waves grows into something. That's a 12.5 to 20% chance that one will become a depression or higher. This time of year, ( Pre Hurricane Season ), I would think that there would be less than a 5% chance of a Tropical Wave becoming anyhting but a thunderstorm complex. However, We have seen an Eastward moving EPAC Hurricane in the last week, so all bets are off!
I'll see if I can find some links for the 'Earliest Tropical Depression' in the Atlantic.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path HanKFranK Wed May 25 2005 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Models tornado00   Fri May 27 2005 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Models Bloodstar   Sat May 28 2005 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Models Storm Cooper   Sat May 28 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Models tornado00   Sat May 28 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re:Gray's new # out javlin   Fri May 27 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re:Gray's new # out Bloodstar   Sat May 28 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Derek Sutherland   Wed May 18 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path tornado00   Wed May 18 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 12:55 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 12:53 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 01:12 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 01:18 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Katie   Wed May 18 2005 01:38 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression danielwAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 01:44 AM
. * * Omg!!! hurricaneds   Thu May 19 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Omg!!! ftlaudbob   Thu May 19 2005 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Omg!!! rmbjoe1954   Thu May 19 2005 02:01 PM
. * * please help ftlaudbob   Thu May 19 2005 02:05 PM
. * * Re: please help HanKFranK   Thu May 19 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: please help Keith234   Thu May 19 2005 06:44 PM
. * * maybes HanKFranK   Thu May 19 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: maybes Keith234   Thu May 19 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: maybes Clark   Thu May 19 2005 08:19 PM
. * * Re: maybes hurricane_run   Thu May 19 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: maybes Storm Hunter   Fri May 20 2005 01:19 AM
. * * Re: maybes ftlaudbob   Fri May 20 2005 02:13 AM
. * * arlene may have to wait LI Phil   Fri May 20 2005 04:32 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait HF gone home   Fri May 20 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait LadyStorm   Fri May 20 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait hurricane_run   Fri May 20 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait nl   Fri May 20 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait javlin   Fri May 20 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait Cycloneye11   Fri May 20 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait Colleen A.   Fri May 20 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait Clark   Fri May 20 2005 02:05 PM
. * * any cool hurricane links? ftlaudbob   Fri May 20 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? B.C.Francis   Fri May 20 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? Jamiewx   Fri May 20 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? LadyStorm   Sat May 21 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? tornado00   Sat May 21 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? LadyStorm   Sat May 21 2005 01:57 PM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? tornado00   Sat May 21 2005 11:47 AM
. * * HAPPY BIRTHDAY LI Phil   Sat May 21 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY Storm Cooper   Sat May 21 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY FlaMommy   Sat May 21 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: whats near Will   Sat May 21 2005 09:44 PM
. * * Re: whats near Clark   Sat May 21 2005 11:21 PM
. * * The "Perfect Storm" LI Phil   Sun May 22 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: The "Perfect Storm" Clark   Sun May 22 2005 03:45 AM
. * * Anomalies or abnormalities? danielwAdministrator   Sun May 22 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Anomalies or abnormalities? danielwAdministrator   Mon May 23 2005 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Anomalies or abnormalities? Cycloneye11   Sun May 22 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Where's my royalties? LI Phil   Mon May 23 2005 01:11 AM
. * * Re: LI Phil 5/22/05 doug   Tue May 24 2005 04:41 PM
. * * interesting ftlaudbob   Tue May 24 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: interesting *DELETED* danielwAdministrator   Wed May 25 2005 04:52 AM
. * * NHC/ TPC on top of things! danielwAdministrator   Wed May 25 2005 05:12 AM
. * * Re: interesting ftlaudbob   Tue May 24 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: interesting Bloodstar   Tue May 24 2005 07:51 PM
. * * Re: interesting Clark   Tue May 24 2005 09:01 PM
. * * Re: interesting Bloodstar   Tue May 24 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: interesting ftlaudbob   Wed May 25 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: interesting ftlaudbob   Wed May 25 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Where's my royalties? danielwAdministrator   Mon May 23 2005 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Where's my royalties? LI Phil   Mon May 23 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Where's my royalties? danielwAdministrator   Mon May 23 2005 02:53 AM
. * * late spring pattern (repost) Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 23 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Special Tropical Disturbance Statement MapMaster   Tue May 24 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Where's my royalties? LI Phil   Mon May 23 2005 01:25 AM
. * * Re: whats near Bloodstar   Sun May 22 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: whats near Lysis   Sat May 21 2005 11:43 PM
. * * QUIET MAY DON   Tue May 24 2005 05:55 PM
. * * Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY Cycloneye11   Sat May 21 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? Steve Hirschb.   Fri May 20 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: any cool hurricane links? Lysis   Sat May 21 2005 12:24 AM
. * * is it safe to say that... Ryan   Sat May 21 2005 05:24 AM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait B.C.Francis   Fri May 20 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait Liz   Fri May 20 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: arlene may have to wait B.C.Francis   Fri May 20 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: maybes HanKFranK   Thu May 19 2005 07:46 PM
. * * OT Keith234   Thu May 19 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador Keith234   Thu May 19 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador Lysis   Thu May 19 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador Cycloneye11   Thu May 19 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador hurricane_run   Thu May 19 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador hurricane_run   Thu May 19 2005 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador Heather   Thu May 19 2005 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador Lysis   Thu May 19 2005 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador hurricane_run   Thu May 19 2005 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador FlaMommy   Thu May 19 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: maybes Bloodstar   Thu May 19 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: maybes LI Phil   Thu May 19 2005 07:40 PM
. * * Re: please help javlin   Thu May 19 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: please help Sadie   Thu May 19 2005 04:11 PM
. * * Adrian upgraded MapMaster   Thu May 19 2005 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Adrian upgraded hurricane_run   Thu May 19 2005 06:35 PM
. * * up up and away...2 the storm Storm Hunter   Thu May 19 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression h2ocean   Wed May 18 2005 02:52 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 03:32 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression javlin   Wed May 18 2005 03:24 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Clark   Wed May 18 2005 03:39 AM
. * * precedence HanKFranK   Wed May 18 2005 04:37 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression mysticalmooons   Wed May 18 2005 04:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian danielwAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian HanKFranK   Wed May 18 2005 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian mysticalmooons   Wed May 18 2005 05:17 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian danielwAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Southern4sure   Wed May 18 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian AgentB   Wed May 18 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Colleen A.   Wed May 18 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian ftlaudbob   Wed May 18 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Colleen A.   Wed May 18 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian ftlaudbob   Wed May 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian James88   Wed May 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Bloodstar   Wed May 18 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian ftlaudbob   Wed May 18 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Clark   Wed May 18 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian HF (work)   Wed May 18 2005 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Clark   Wed May 18 2005 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian javlin   Wed May 18 2005 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Kevin   Wed May 18 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Adrian/Arlene LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene JustMe   Wed May 18 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene rmbjoe1954   Wed May 18 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene trinibaje   Wed May 18 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene trinibaje   Wed May 18 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene FlaMommy   Wed May 18 2005 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene FlaMommy   Wed May 18 2005 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene MissBecky   Wed May 18 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Clark   Wed May 18 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Storm Hunter   Thu May 19 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Colleen A.   Thu May 19 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Katie   Thu May 19 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Colleen A.   Fri May 20 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Colleen A.   Thu May 19 2005 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene javlin   Wed May 18 2005 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene mikeG   Wed May 18 2005 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene MissBecky   Wed May 18 2005 10:36 PM
. * * status HanKFranK   Wed May 18 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: status Hurricane Guy   Wed May 18 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene Storm Cooper   Wed May 18 2005 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Adrian/Arlene hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian ncmike   Wed May 18 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian (position) hurricane_run   Wed May 18 2005 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Keith234   Wed May 18 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Liz   Wed May 18 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian ftlaudbob   Wed May 18 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Wingman51   Wed May 18 2005 05:40 PM
. * * interesting link for florida residents ftlaudbob   Wed May 18 2005 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian rmbjoe1954   Wed May 18 2005 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian B.C.Francis   Wed May 18 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian mysticalmooons   Wed May 18 2005 05:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian mysticalmooons   Wed May 18 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Storm Hunter   Wed May 18 2005 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian danielwAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Storm Hunter   Wed May 18 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Adrian Shalafi   Wed May 18 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Deluge in Puerto Rico Cycloneye11   Wed May 18 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Deluge in Puerto Rico nl   Wed May 18 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Deluge in Puerto Rico javlin   Wed May 18 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Good Link Cocoa Beach   Wed May 18 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Good Link nl   Wed May 18 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Good Link wxman007   Wed May 18 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Good Link rmbjoe1954   Wed May 18 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Good Link mysticalmooons   Wed May 18 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Good Link AgentB   Wed May 18 2005 03:45 PM
. * * HEY COLLEEN! LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! Colleen A.   Wed May 18 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 04:01 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! Colleen A.   Wed May 18 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! Wingman51   Wed May 18 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! wxman007   Wed May 18 2005 04:43 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! Wingman51   Wed May 18 2005 05:12 PM
. * * Re: HEY COLLEEN! FlaMommy   Wed May 18 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Good Link Shalafi   Wed May 18 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Clark   Wed May 18 2005 02:51 AM
. * * Re: More Lightning danielwAdministrator   Wed May 18 2005 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Not lightning Mapmaster   Wed May 18 2005 01:53 AM
. * * May? Doombot!   Wed May 18 2005 05:05 AM
. * * Re: May? LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 05:18 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Heather   Wed May 18 2005 01:43 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 12:58 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 01:04 AM
. * * Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 01:11 AM

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