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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

scottsvb
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl

On Track?
Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM

General Conditions of TD is fairly weak. We have recon giving back reports of a still weak 1009mb pressure. No winds right now are as strong as yesterday. Does that mean the system is weaker? Infact NO of course not. Yesterday the system was crusing along near 20K and with the T-storms on its NE side of 20-30mph it relivates to a tropical storm force winds. But overall the structure is alittle better due to the slowing down of the system as it loses the strong driving ridge to its N. Now the TWC mets been talkiing about the T-Storms creating there own enviroment decreasing the sheer. Where did they learn that from? I cant believe they are tell you guys that. Only the most strongest Hurricanes with pressures under 925mb or so will create a strong enough upper flow, and there still is sheer though not as strong in TD10 right now. The only reason there is not as much is due to the TS losing the speed of the ridge while the upper low to its NW continues to the W.
Forcast remains the same. With a weaker system a west movement will happen with the low level flow. When the system gets better organized with pressures around 1005mb or so it will get pulled by the mid level flow which is out of the ESE causing a WNW movement. Currently the system is getting better though Im not sure if it will be upgraded to a TS by 5pm. Waiting on another recon. My forcast is still on track as post sw of Jamaica later today and tonight to near G cayman island on weds. My cross over was near 81 W and will be adjusted slightly W. I dont expect much of a W track into the Yucitan though it might get close if the system doesnt intensify early on it the forcast period. Finally be off the Sw coast of Florida on early Friday as a strong cat 1 or 2. We are all up in the air on intensity. Track is pretty well on, but we have time to see what happens to U.S landfall over the next 48-72 hours to pinpoint. scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:56 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:10 PM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:16 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:05 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:54 PM
no telling	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:44 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:48 AM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:04 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:47 AM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:19 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:42 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:40 AM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:45 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:49 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:47 AM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:39 AM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 AM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:09 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:52 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:44 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	RBL	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:53 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:16 PM
LLCC?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:22 PM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:57 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:18 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:31 PM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:26 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: Mark	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:27 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:11 PM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:04 PM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:14 PM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:29 PM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:34 PM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

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