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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
Wed Jun 01 2005 06:09 PM

Quote:

We have had above average rain in south Florida this May,does that mean a weak Bermuda high?And does a weak Bermuda high mean south Fl. will be spared?

First thing you have to do is examine exactly where the rainfall in SFL has been above average. The map on this link is good for viewing rainfall totals:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/monthly.html
Only three of the counties on this map experienced above average rainfall during May. The rest of them had below average rainfall. Moreover, the "district average" was .68 inches below normal for the month. Sure, a few counties clocked in with decently above average totals, but overall I'd call May slightly below average for South Florida.

Another important point to make is the timing of the rainfall. The past few days have been pretty rainy for much of the Florida Peninsula, right? In fact, we had some decent batches of rain come across the peninsula late last night. Now, does the May rainfall/Florida hurricanes relationship some kind of switch that automatically goes off 12 AM on 1 June? With so much rainfall occuring so late in the month, I'd be weary of just how much these late totals really count.

And then there's the argument that you can't really predict Florida (or US) landfalls several months in advance. Dr. Gray has been one of the foremost experts to state that landfall predictions months in advance simply cannot be made (with accuracy) at this time. This is the stance that I tend to agree with. Since the advent of the 3 day forecast track, hurricane forecasters have at one time or another experienced problems in producing accurate forecasts. Three months in advance? Forget about it. It simply is not possible to predict the small variations that can occur in the atmosphere months in advance. Sure, the Bermuda High might be weaker than average for the majority of the summer, but if the position and strength are right for just ONE storm, disaster can occur.

This argument has come up before, but it is one worth recalling from time to time.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	MikeC	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:09 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Toto	Mon Jun 06 2005 03:09 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	GuppieGrouper	Mon Jun 06 2005 10:11 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	tornado00	Mon Jun 06 2005 01:17 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Wingman51	Mon Jun 06 2005 04:33 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Clark	Mon Jun 06 2005 04:58 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Wingman51	Mon Jun 06 2005 05:01 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	doug	Mon Jun 06 2005 05:26 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	mysticalmooons	Mon Jun 06 2005 05:47 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	doug	Mon Jun 06 2005 06:11 PM
Interesting	Colleen A.	Mon Jun 06 2005 07:36 PM
Re: Interesting	rmbjoe1954	Mon Jun 06 2005 08:23 PM
Re: Interesting	Ryan	Mon Jun 06 2005 10:24 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Londovir	Sat Jun 04 2005 06:29 AM
NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Frank P	Sat Jun 04 2005 12:53 PM
Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Cycloneye11	Sat Jun 04 2005 09:51 PM
Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Frank P	Sat Jun 04 2005 10:35 PM
Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Kandis McClung	Sat Jun 04 2005 05:46 PM
Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Keith234	Sat Jun 04 2005 08:30 PM
Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link	Heather	Sun Jun 05 2005 05:12 PM
near 42506	mikeG	Sun Jun 05 2005 05:44 PM
Re: near 42506	stormchazer	Sun Jun 05 2005 08:31 PM
Re: near 42506	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 05 2005 08:47 PM
Trouble next weekend?	Rob_M	Sun Jun 05 2005 11:20 PM
Re: Trouble next weekend?	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 05 2005 11:27 PM
Re: Trouble next weekend?	Clark	Mon Jun 06 2005 01:27 AM
Re: Trouble next weekend?	HanKFranK	Mon Jun 06 2005 03:05 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Domino	Thu Jun 02 2005 02:53 AM
New Feature: Met Blogs	LI Phil	Thu Jun 02 2005 03:49 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	tornado00	Wed Jun 01 2005 05:33 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	ftlaudbob	Wed Jun 01 2005 05:43 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Kevin	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:09 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	ftlaudbob	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:18 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Keith234	Wed Jun 01 2005 07:19 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Clark	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:28 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Keith234	Wed Jun 01 2005 11:46 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	danielw	Thu Jun 02 2005 01:05 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	h2ocean	Thu Jun 02 2005 02:01 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	GuppieGrouper	Thu Jun 02 2005 01:58 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	ftlaudbob	Thu Jun 02 2005 02:33 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	doug	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:58 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Bloodstar	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:31 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	ftlaudbob	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:40 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Clark	Wed Jun 01 2005 07:14 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Steve hirschb.	Wed Jun 01 2005 07:25 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Fletch	Wed Jun 01 2005 08:36 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Heather	Wed Jun 01 2005 09:10 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Kevin	Wed Jun 01 2005 09:15 PM
Bermuda High-Basic Explanation	LI Phil	Wed Jun 01 2005 09:29 PM
Experts=Grain of Salt	wxman007	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Experts=Grain of Salt	Terra	Thu Jun 02 2005 01:04 AM
Re: Experts=Grain of Salt	Clark	Thu Jun 02 2005 03:56 AM
Any Chances	Cocoa Beach	Thu Jun 02 2005 11:41 AM
Re: Any Chances	tpratch	Thu Jun 02 2005 12:20 PM
Re: Any Chances	Steve hirschb.	Thu Jun 02 2005 04:37 PM
Re: Any Chances	Clark	Thu Jun 02 2005 05:32 PM
Re: Any Chances	Steve hirschb.	Fri Jun 03 2005 11:56 AM
Interesting Flareup	LI Phil	Thu Jun 02 2005 07:24 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	Clark	Thu Jun 02 2005 08:18 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 03 2005 12:33 AM
Re: Interesting Flareup	doug	Fri Jun 03 2005 03:04 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	Clark	Fri Jun 03 2005 05:19 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	MissBecky	Fri Jun 03 2005 09:33 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	James88	Fri Jun 03 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	Rich B	Fri Jun 03 2005 09:53 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 03 2005 10:40 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	Lysis	Fri Jun 03 2005 11:39 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	LI Phil	Sat Jun 04 2005 12:40 AM
Re: Interesting Flareup	B.C.Francis	Fri Jun 03 2005 05:31 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	hockeyucf	Fri Jun 03 2005 05:42 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	Clark	Fri Jun 03 2005 07:19 PM
Re: Interesting Flareup	B.C.Francis	Fri Jun 03 2005 07:01 PM
JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET	LI Phil	Thu Jun 02 2005 10:42 PM
Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET	wxman007	Thu Jun 02 2005 10:51 PM
Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET	LI Phil	Thu Jun 02 2005 10:53 PM
Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET	Storm Cooper	Thu Jun 02 2005 10:57 PM
Picture of the Day	Cocoa Beach	Thu Jun 02 2005 12:19 PM
Very busy for June 1	MapMaster	Wed Jun 01 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Very busy for June 1	dem05	Wed Jun 01 2005 11:32 PM
Re: Experts=Grain of Salt	Kevin	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:23 PM
Jim Williams' Show	LI Phil	Wed Jun 01 2005 09:51 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Lysis	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:58 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	tpratch	Wed Jun 01 2005 07:07 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Bloodstar	Wed Jun 01 2005 06:51 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	B.C.Francis	Wed Jun 01 2005 10:54 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	LI Phil	Wed Jun 01 2005 04:41 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	ZooKeeper	Wed Jun 01 2005 01:51 PM
well ahead	HanKFranK	Wed Jun 01 2005 04:02 PM
Re: well ahead	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jun 01 2005 04:51 PM
Re: well ahead	Steve hirschb.	Wed Jun 01 2005 04:40 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Frank P	Wed Jun 01 2005 11:28 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Sat Jun 04 2005 11:47 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	dem05	Sat Jun 04 2005 11:57 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Heather	Wed Jun 01 2005 11:55 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	AgentB	Wed Jun 01 2005 05:14 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Cycloneye11	Wed Jun 01 2005 12:41 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Artsy Fartsy	Wed Jun 01 2005 01:12 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	vvvteddybearvvv	Wed Jun 01 2005 05:21 AM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	James88	Wed Jun 01 2005 09:29 AM

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