The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

The conversation has been interesting! I felt I had to jump in too. Everyone seems to be making some valid points on this topic. You just beat me to the punch on mentioning Jim Lushine, but I would like to mention some of the other facts that go into his research and might clear the air a bit.
Jim's reserach is far reaching and crdible. He has served the NWS for 33 years now. His research is what is attracting so much attention. It is probably getting even more attention now because he really brought it to the forefront previous to last season, when south florida had a very dry year. The premise behind the research is simpler than people realize. May is the focus of the research for two important reasons. First, being the month before the season starts, it is the best place to research climate and identify if there are climate precursors for the season. Second, it is a setup month for afternoon thunderstorms. For those who know about the mechanics of FLorida afternoon thunderstom formation, you will also know they form along the seabreeze front. As the evening approaches, the sea breeze weakens and allows thunderstorms to drift toward the coast. If the Bermuda High is stronger, it can be observed that these afternoon storms really can't make their way to the coast in the Miami area and they will typically drift inland. That's where the causal link truely rests.
With that said, there has been mention of midlattitude systems and hurricanes that make landfall in wetter years. Remeber, stronger systems can produce that one, two, or three time event that brings the whole month to average. Those are times that individuals need to look at the overall picture. Nothing in our atmosphere is truely static, any scientist would tell you there's a caveat to everything.
I have saw the gentleman present on this topic just overr a year ago, I am trying to locate any papers he has written on this particular topic now. More and more, I am finding that he has made a lot of contributions to the field of meteorology through my google search.
Either way you wish to read the research. Bottom line... We live in Florida and we should be prepared no matter what!

Edited by dem05 (Wed Jun 01 2005 11:45 PM)

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