yeah, according to the 530PM TWO there is a weak and disorganised low pressure area in the NW Caribbean. But then you have the following statement in the 205PM TWD: THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
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