The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

Both regions in which these disturbances are pegged are projected by the models to be just south of the subtropical jet and moving northward into its vicinity with time, making any significant development unlikely. More likely than not, assuming a surface feature develops, these will be regions that look more impressive than they really are, featuring a good bit of convection but no real tropical punch. This would be assisted by being in the right entrance region of the jet, generally a favorable region for rising motion (and in a general sense, convective activity). Cyclone phase analyses only pick up the one N of PR and show a hybrid structure at development trending even more so through time.

Both features -- whatever comes of them -- will get picked up by midlatitude troughs and taken towards the north and east.

From continuity & looking at the prog charts, the low off of PR is expected to come from the tropical wave currently in the vicinity of the islands (and just east of an upper-level low/TUTT cell) as that upper low retrogrades to the east and weakens. The feature into the Gulf looks to be an artifact of a broader area of low pressure that becomes "organized" over the vicinity of where Adrian made landfall. Both would quickly become engulfed by midlatitude disturbances after development, if they don't become part of that flow beforehand.

I don't expect any tropical development out of either, but some extratropical development might occur....chance of subtropical development maybe with the PR system, if it develops & then manages to stick around in the central Atlantic for some time. It might do that -- but I'd favor extratropical development over all scenarios for now, given the forecast evolution of the upper-level regime as of now. Not too keen on the Gulf scenario; it may end up being a repeat of what we've got going on now (and have for the past few days) in Florida, and that's about the best I'd call for on that one right now.

Sit tight, folks. The season will get started in earnest before we know it...but I don't think either of these systems will be the ones that do it. Watch the one near PR, but don't get your hopes up yet...IMO.

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