The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

i'm a little more enthused about the east caribbean system personally. the models have been more consistent on it, and the disturbed weather precursor appears to be there now. right now it's nowhere near being something, though... earlier on the visibles you could see the low level easterlies lancing through the convection at a good clip. there does to seem to be at least some of the pattern-induced forcing element needed to get things started, but only the beginnings. a mid level vortmax from continuous convection and a surface trough would be the next step.. creating a place for a low to develop at the southwest corner of the disturbance.. if the models are to be believed that stuff won't show up until tuesday. there isn't a lot of help from soi, it's weakly negative and not providing the backing these puppies like. i don't look at phase diagrams, but can see 'subtropical' nature it seems to have in that it seems to generate a 500mb weakness around it late next week north of the islands. seems a tad dubious to me (but then we're dealing with a dubious at best feature to begin with). think if anything comes it'll be tropical, unless like clark says it gets up to the north and decides to jet out.
for the west carib feature, it's less consistent and if present will be riding nnw or nw as it nears florida, complements of the upper ridge poised to sit over the mid atlantic going into next week. that would be a shear-kill scenario. noticed that the 18z gfs run leaves a chunk behind near south florida about ten days out, then kicks it out northeast. clunky evolution on that one right now, not convincing.
pattern may progress again late in the period if the ensembles are to be believed.. eastern ridge weakens and a trough digs in off the east coast. we'll be riding easy if that sort of trick is pulled when the longtrackers are roaming west. but i'd have to say that the westerlies and subtropical jet are already getting muddled... and there's been a tendency to tropical moisture flows out of the caribbean recently. anything down there will probably get pushed towards florida, in any case. not that it matters a great deal in june... june systems are usually rainy and weak.
anyhow, nuff said. we've got what may be an 'on' week (at least probably an invest to watch), and it's just week 2 of the season.
HF 0405z06june

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