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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Things Getting Organized?
      Mon Jun 06 2005 01:04 PM

From the HPC Final Extended Discussion...

....ATLC TROPICS...
TDAS MODEL RUNS MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARRIBEAN BASIN MID TO LATE WEEK. ECMWF AND
UKMET PREFER WRN CARIB WHERE CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED ON BOTH SIDE OF LOWER CENTRAL AMERICA. MODELS TAKE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A NWWD TRACK INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY NEXT WEEKEND..A PREFERRED SOLUTION BY TPC/HPC
COORDINATION TAKING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NW. EWD A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST CARRIBEAN BASIN IS PREFERRED BY GFS AND
CANADIAN TO LIFT NWD BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME HVY RAINFALL TO
THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES. 06Z GFS AND NOGAPS RUNS LIKE BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS.

Looks like the Caribbean and GOM are getting primed for some action...this does bear watching, even though nothing has developed quite yet.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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* Things Getting Organized? wxman007 Mon Jun 06 2005 01:04 PM

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